Senate Rankings

November 2nd rankings

noreply@blogger.com (Taniel) — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 07:56:00 +0000

Senate Rankings, November 2nd 2008

Outlook: Democratic pick-up a net 6-11 Senate seats.

History of Campaign Diaries's Senate rankings:

October 25th: Dems lead in 6 GOP-held seats, hope to sweep 11 (rating changes, full rankings)
October 12th: Make it eleven (rating changes, full rankings)
September rankings: Democrats have 9 targets and GOP banks on McCain
July rankings: Democrats still looking for new targets
May rankings: The map shifts towards Democrats
January rankings: GOP prospects improve in a few seats
November '07 rankings: Republicans push back but remain in tight spot
October '07 rankings: Everything breaks for Democrats
August '07 rankings: How high can Democrats rise?

Safe Takeover (1 Republican seat, 0 Democratic seat)

1. Virginia (Open seat)

Last updated on October 25th: Barack Obama is leading the state’s presidential race by double-digits in the latest polls, so what is the chance that Mark Warner stumbles? Jim Gilmore’s campaign has been a catastrophe from the start, and the state GOP will regret having barred Tom Davis’s path to the nomination.

Likely Takeover (4 Republican seats, 0 Democratic seat)

2. New Mexico (Open)

Last updated on September 23rd: While polls have long shown Tom Udall crushing Steve Pearce, the NRSC had not given up hope and had reserved $2.7 million of air time in the state to help Pearce. Yet, the Republican committee canceled that reservation earlier this week, signaling that they were no longer planning to contest New Mexico and admitting that the odds of Pearce coming back are too low for the GOP to spent its meager resources on this race. That said, Pearce is counting on independent groups to attack Udall, and Rasmussen's September survey found a tightening race.

3. Colorado (Open)

Last updated on October 25th: In what has been one of the most puzzling races of this cycle, nothing that either candidate did was moving poll numbers. Mark Udall remained consistently ahead by single-digits for more than a year despite expectations that he would be able to rapidly pull away. Even the revelations about Bob Schaffer’s connection to Jack Abramoff and the abortion and sweat-shop labor controversies that surrounded his trip to the Mariana Islands failed to significantly help Udall. Similarly, the GOP thought they were making progress when the public mood turned in favor of oil drilling; Republicans believed that would hurt Udall, who is a staunch conservationist, and even Udall must have thought the same thing since he abruptly reversed his stance on drilling in the late summer. Yet, Udall’s defensive summer position made no dent in his modest polling lead.

Over the past month, however, the race appears to have decisively broken in Udall’s favor. The economic crisis has hurt Republicans across the country, and nowhere more so than in open seats. In a supreme sign of confidence, the DSCC announced this week that it was pulling out of the state, no longer believing that Udall needed their help. The NRSC did the same yesterday, pulling its ads out and shifting the resources it had devoted to helping Schaffer to other more salvageable seats. While Colorado might not be as much of a lock as New Mexico and Virginia, it has become highly unlikely that Schaffer can pull off an upset.

4. New Hampshire (Incumbent: John Sununu)

Last updated November 2nd: For a few weeks in September, It looked like Sununu might be climbing back as he regained his footing among independents, aired hard-hitting ads attacking Shaheen’s gubernatorial record and portrayed himself as an energetic maverick; but the economic crisis and the GOP’s collapse in late September halted any momentum Sununu might have been enjoying.

Besides that short period of shifting momentum, this race has been remarkably stable for more than a year. Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen was already dominating incumbent Senator John Sununu before she announced her candidacy. In fact, she has only trailed in only two polls - an ARG poll from December 2007 and a Rasmussen poll from September 2008; both surveys had Sununu up big, and both seemed like complete outliers. (ARG and Rasmussen’s next surveys corrected themselves and showed Shaheen regaining a commanding advantage.) While Shaheen’s edge isn’t big enough for a Sununu comeback to be ruled out, it is hard to conceive of an incumbent prevailing after being consistently stuck in the low 40s and a GOP hold would have to be considered as one of the biggest upsets in modern politics.

5. Oregon (Incumbent: Gordon Smith)

Last updated on November 2nd: Sen. Gordon Smith has been aware that he is vulnerable since the first days of the cycle and has done his best to prepare, but the environment is simply too toxic for Republicans - particularly in a blue state like Oregon. All polls suggest that Obama will crush McCain in the state, significantly outperforming Al Gore and John Kerry, a clear sign that Oregon’s independent voters are behaving like Democrats. The DSCC has been hammering Gordon Smith for months for his proximity to George Bush and for his party label, and it is remarkable that all of Smith’s ads touting his bipartisanship (some of which were quite effective) have not protected him. As if that was not enough, the Democratic surge of the past seven weeks has perhaps damaged no Republican as much as Gordon Smith.

That said, the new likely take-over rating is somewhat deceiving: It is not meant to describe the size or the ease of a Merkley’s victory (in fact, I only moved the race out of the toss-up column eight days ago) as much as the fact that it looks like Merkley has already won the race. As the entire voting in Oregon is conducted via mail, which means that the vast majority of voters have already sent in their ballot. Election Day has already passed in the state, and a number of polls released over the past few days show that Gordon Smith has remained stuck in the low 40s, trailing widely among those respondents who said they had already voted. Merkley’s margin will not be large enough for a Smith victory to be ruled out, but the incumbent Senator would have to perform very well among the last batch of mailed ballot to keep his seat.

Lean Takeover (3 R, 0 D)

6. North Carolina (Incumbent: Elizabeth Dole)

Last updated on October 5th: In my July ratings, I wrote that "the DSCC has been looking for more seats to contest, and has made a clear choice that North Carolina has the most potential." Within a matter of weeks, the DSCC's involvement has transformed the race into one of the year's most heated - and most surprisingly so. While we certainly knew that Senator Dole was vulnerable, Democrats were certainly not expecting for the incumbent’s standing to collapse so easily. Dole led by double-digits through July, but a hard-hitting campaign by the DSCC painting Dole as ineffective and lacking clout with brutal spots (here are the first and second) took care of Dole’s numbers. (When Dole aired an ad portraying Hagan as a yapping dog, the DSCC fired back by comparing Dole to a smoking car.) The race quickly became a toss-up by the end of August.

Since then, Hagan has inched ahead in a number of polls, with her lead extending as much as a 9% in the latest PPP survey! To make matters worse for Dole, Hagan will benefit from Obama’s turnout machine while McCain’s ground game is minimal in the Tar Heel state. Somewhat surprisingly, Republican operatives are very pessimistic about this race, dropping quotes in a multitude of press outlets about how bad Dole’s situation is. Though there is no question that Dole’s campaign has been strikingly weak and its attakcs on Hagan have failed to catch on, polls do not justify such a high level of despair. The race remains highly competitive, and it could easily find its way back to the toss-up column in upcoming weeks. For now, however, Hagan is riding the DSCC advertisements and Obama’s momentum in the state, and that is proving a lethal combination.

7. Alaska (Incumbent: Ted Stevens)

Last updated on November 2nd: Ted Stevens’s conviction radically transformed the Alaska Senate race. The incumbent Senator had fallen in a hole after his late July indictment but had managed to battle his way into a dead heat. His electoral fate looked to be entirely dependent on the outcome of his high-profile trial, and Stevens would probably have won re-election had he been acquitted; but it took a reconfigured jury only a few hours to find him guilty on all seven counts on Monday. Since then, bad news has accumulated for Stevens: Rasmussen and Research 2000 found him trailing by 8% and 22% respectively, and countless Republicans called for Stevens’s resignation - including Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Alaska Governor Sarah Palin. Their repudiation helps the Democratic argument that Stevens is too discredited to even be able to bring back earmarks to the state.

In any other state and against any other incumbent, a late October conviction and such pile-up by members of one’s own party would be enough to swing the race to the safe takeover category. But this is Ted Stevens, perhaps the politician that has the most towering dominance on his state’s politics anywhere in the country. The now-convicted felon is trying to rally Alaskans around him by arguing that the trial’s verdict was the work of outside forces trying to influence Alaska. While Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich is now clearly favored, Stevens’s political obituary should not be written before Tuesday night.

Toss-up (2 R, 0 D)

7. Minnesota (Incumbent: Norm Coleman)

Last updated September 23rd: The media chose the Minnesota Senate race as this cycle's marquee match-up more than a year ago, before there was any evidence of whether the contest would live up to the hype. In 2006, the Casey-Santorum battle was similarly drummed up but it turned out to be a relatively dull race without much movement. But this time the expectations were spot on: No Senate race has been as heated and as nasty as the all-out war between Al Franken and Norm Coleman.

For much of the spring, Coleman put Franken on the defensive with a series of controversies on Franken's past - and his best summer efforts to keep the conversation on these issues were boosted by the fact that a Democrat started airing even harsher spots against Franken's "record of degradation of minorities and women." But Franken has effectively turned the table on Coleman by hitting the incumbent's ethics in a series of spot (here's part 1 and part 2) that conclude with “stay tuned for more,” in an attempt to transform Coleman’s ethical misconduct in some sort of eagerly-awaited mini-series. And Franken has also relied on the DSCC, which has become increasingly involved in the race and is airing ads tying Coleman to the Bush Administration - the Democrat's most predictable strategy this election year.

We have long known that this election would be defined over which campaign manages to put the spotlight on his opponent: Democrats want to make this a referendum on Coleman's party label, and Republicans want to make it into a referendum on Franken's past. As Democrats have made progress over recent months, the comfortable lead Coleman posted throughout the summer has melted. SUSA (which had found Coleman up outside the MoE since March) now has a 1% race, and Minnesota Public Radio recently found Franken ahead by as much. It's no surprise, then, that Coleman just unleashed his harshest negative ad yet, attacking Franken's temperament in an effort to put the spotlight back on the Democrat.

10. Georgia (Incumbent: Chambliss)

Last updated on November 2nd: Who knew that Saxby Chambliss was this vulnerable? Late late spring, there were many other candidates to join the group of highly competitive Senate contests: Maine, Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Idaho… Democrats were too busy figuring out what was happening in a divisive primary in Georgia to think ahead to the general election. But some polls showed potential immediately after Jim Martin’s nomination - and that was before the financial crisis undercut Chambliss’s defenses along with those of Republican candidates nationwide.

With Libertarian Allen Buckley holding in the mid single-digits, the most plausible scenario is that no candidate crosses 50%, sending incumbent Senator Saxby Chambliss and former state Senator Jim Martin in a high-stakes high-profile runoff. Very few October polls have found any breathing room between the two candidates, with Martin doing significantly better among registered voters - a model that Georgia’s early voting data suggests could be closer to Tuesday’s vote. And with this stunning boost in African-American turnout, an outright Martin victory on Tuesday is perhaps more plausible than Chambliss’s crossing 50%.

Both parties have poured in millions in the final stretch, but all of that will pale in comparison to the resources that will be invested if the race goes in the runoff. It is doubtful that Barack Obama, if he becomes President Elect, would want to be associated with the race too closely as a defeat would then risk undermining his mandate before he even starts governing, but there is no question that the state will be swamped by both parties’ top surrogates. It’s an open question as to who would be most favored by a runoff. On the one hand, Republicans would have an easy time arguing that Democrats should not be given full powers if Obama is elected and if his party makes Senate gains elsewhere; on the other hand, special elections tend to favor whichever party is more enthusiastic - and in 2008 that would be Democrats.

Lean Retention (2 R, 1 D)

10. Mississippi (Incumbent: Roger Wicker)

Last updated November 2nd: Senator Roger Wicker has been slowly improving his re-election prospects ever since he was appointed Senator 11 months ago, confirming the Democrats’ contention that Gov. Barbour’s ploy to delay this special election from March to November was meant to help Wicker. The NRSC has put few Democratic candidates on the defensive as much as Musgrove: They have hammered him on his gubernatorial record, accused him of costing the state jobs and of being involved in shady transactions, taken veiled shots at his family life and at his efforts to change the state flag to no longer reflect any Confederate heritage, and described him as an “out of touch” liberal who supports Hillary-esque policies and the homosexual agenda.

In one of the GOP’s most ingenious tricks, they have sought to weaken Musgrove’s hold on the black vote. On the one hand, they are charging that Musgrove supports Barack Obama to lower his support among white voters; and they are exploiting the fact that Musgrove cannot appear to close to Obama or to African-American voters to run ads on black radio accusing Musgrove of neglecting African-Americans. The two latest polls (conducted by Rasmussen and Research 2000) showed Wicker pulling ahead to a high single-digit lead, suggesting that the Republican offensive has been working.

All of this said, victory remains in sight for Ronnie Musgrove, and the race is only moving to the “lean” category. The former Governor has been elected statewide before, and he enjoys strong name ID. The DSCC has heavily invested in the race and has sought to drive up the importance of economic issues by waging a populist campaign - for instance accusing Wicker of voting to increase his pay raise. Most importantly, black turnout is a big unknown here: If African-Americans vote at a higher pace (as they have been in the early voting of other Southern states) and boost their share of the electorate, all bets are off.

11. Kentucky (Incumbent: Mitch McConnell)

Last updated on October 12th: We have known that Mitch McConnell is highly vulnerable since polls released in the fall of 2007 showed him barely beating a number of Democrats. Yet, many top-tier Democrats passed on the race and Bruce Lunsford simply did not seem a strong enough candidate to make it this tight (nor would he be a reliable enough Democrat for progressives to get excited over). But the race has been highly engaged for months, with both candidates running vicious ads (Lunsford has been particularly smart by contrasting McCain’s reformist image to McConnell’s insider status).

Over the past few weeks, polls have shown the gap has closed, with Mason Dixon going as far as showing a tie; most other pollsters show McConnell leading in single digits. The DSCC has just gone up on air against McConnell, further proof that Democrats are determined to bring down the Senate’s Republican leader. In the context of the financial crisis, it might no longer matter how good or bad a candidate is as long as he has a “D” next to his name; as the Senate Minority Leader, McConnell is that much more likely to suffer from voter anger about Washington and about Republicans.

12. Louisiana (Incumbent: Mary Landrieu)

Last updated September 23rd: Much like Mississippi's Wicker, Mary Landrieu stands to benefit from the added exposure for incumbents that came with Gustav and she is already running an ad touting her work on damage prevention. However, she also could lose more from the demobilization of New Orleans. That city is essential to statewide Democratic victories in this state, will residents be thinking about the election in the coming week and can they be organized?

Gustav aside, Landrieu has enjoyed a strong summer. Her campaign has relentlessly and effectively pounced on Kennedy, using his party switch to blast him as a "confused" and flip-flopping politician in a series of hard-hitting ads. And in a clear sign that Louisiana's politics tilt to the right, the Landrieu campaign mocked Kennedy for supporting "liberal John Kerry" in 2004. These efforts are aimed at cutting Kennedy's support among conservatives, feed resentment among Democratic voters and make him look unprincipled to independents - that was, after all, one of the central claims of Kennedy's campaign. As a result, Kennedy has been forced on the defensive and Landrieu has taken a comfortable lead in the most recent poll.

Likely retention (4 R, 1 D)

13. Maine (Incumbent: Susan Collins)

Last updated September 23rd: This is not a race that is making much noise - and that's bad for Democrats considering they have been failing to put in the competitive category. The DSCC has not canceled its $5 million reservation on state airwaves, but it's already mid-September and there is still no sign of Democratic willingness to go after Susan Collins. Tom Allen's ads have been positive biographical spots, but that will not get the job done against a popular incumbent. If they are not given a convincing reason to throw Collins out, Maine voters are likely to stick with the incumbent, and it is really not surprising that Allen continues to trail widely in the most recent polling - 17% and 19% in the latest Rasmussen and Research 2000 surveys.

14. Oklahoma (Incumbent: Jim Inhofe)

Last updated September 23rd: Democrats have been eying this race for a while, but the only sign that it might be competitive is an internal DSCC poll that finds Inhofe up by 9%. The other two surveys from the state (Sooner and SUSA) find Inhofe crushing his challenger by more than 20%. At the very least, Inhofe is taking Andrew Rice seriously to air an attack ad portraying Rice as too liberal for Oklahoma; but in a red state like this one, that l-word is a tough accusation to recover from, and Rice would need the DSCC's help to have a chance. That does not look like it will be happening.

15. Idaho (Open)

Last updated on September 23rd: Lieutenant Governor Jim Risch is performing as he has to perform to win the election - but not enough to discourage Democrats. Two summer polls have Risch's lead hovering at the double-digit mark, but stuck way under 50%. That has some Democrats hoping and the DSCC is reportedly starting to take a look at this race. A third poll released this week has Risch leading by 28%, though it does include independent and conservative candidate Rex Rammell.

Indeed, the GOP is reportedly worried Rammell might siphon votes away from Risch. Rep. Sali is said to have contacted Rammell and two other conservative candidates, urging them to drop out of the race. But the GOP's attempt to kick Rammell off the ballot failed in early September, as the state Supreme Court upheld Rammell's petition. Now, LaRocco is trying his best to raise Rammell's profile. While Risch continues to refuse to debate, LaRocco and Rammell held a debate - an opportunity for both to make this as much of a three-way race as possible. Summer polls are finding Rammell getting only in the mid-single digits.

16. New Jersey (Incumbent: Frank Lautenberg)

Last updated on September 23rd: As is usual in New Jersey, polls are all over the place, from an 18% lead for Lautenberg to a 1% lead for Zimmer (in a Club for Growth poll). Most surveys are finding the Democratic incumbent hovering around the 10% mark. In New Jersey's peculiar political universe, for a Democrat to lead by 10% in September is as large a lead as he can hope for. But the state GOP has got to believe that they will at some point break their New Jersey curse.

17. Nebraska (Open)

Last updated in July: Considering this race keeps falling down the rankings, it is hard to believe that Nebraska was once ranked fourth. Chuck Hagel's retirement created a short-lived opportunity for Democrats. Former Republican Governor Johanns soon jumped in the race and Democrats Bob Kerrey and Mike Fahey announced they would not run. Democrats nominated Scott Kleeb, a promising candidate who did surprisingly well in NE-03 in 2006. Yet, Nebraska remains very Republican and Johanns is as strong a candidate as the GOP could have run. Polls confirm that it will take a miracle for Kleeb to move to Washington.

Safe

18. Texas (Incumbent: John Cornyn)

Last updated October 25th: Late spring, Sen. Cornyn looked endangered, as a string of polls showed him barely ahead of Democratic challenger Rick Noriega, a state Senator who might not have been a top-tier candidate but was certainly credible enough to exploit Cornyn’s vulnerabilities. Unfortunately for Democrats, Noriega never caught fire, and Cornyn’s poll numbers - while not as stellar as they could be - put him safely ahead. The main factor that explains why Texas did not become more competitive while North Carolina, Kentucky and Georgia have joined the top-tier is money: It takes a lot of it to wage a campaign in the Lone Star State because of the high number of media markets one has to cover - many of which are very expensive. Noriega’s fundraising was not strong enough to get around that problem, and this also prevented the DSCC from moving in.

19. Kansas (Incumbent: Roberts)

Last updated October 25th: Democrats had some hope that former Rep. Slattery could make this a race, and some summer polls showing Republican Sen. Roberts under 50% gave them hope; even the Kansas press started noticing that there was a Senate race worth covering. But a wave of advertisement has allowed Roberts to regain his footing, despite a memorable ad by Slattery, and the incumbent is now leading by huge margins in the latest polls.

20. South Dakota (Incumbent: Tim Johnson; Last Ranking: 20)

Last updated October 25th: The race was kept in the potentially competitive category based on the possibility that Sen. Johnson’s health condition worsened and gave an opening to his Republican opponent, but Johnson has managed to coast his way to the election remarkably smoothly. South Dakota was once considered as one of the most competitive races of the cycle, but there has been nothing to see ever since Johnson announced he would run for re-election.

21. South Carolina (Incumbent: Graham)

21. Tennessee (Incumbent: Alexander)

22. Iowa (Incumbent: Harkin)

23. Alabama (Incumbent: Sessions)

24. Michigan (Incumbent: Levin)

25. Montana (Incumbent: Baucus)

At the beginning of the cycle, some Republicans were murmuring that Max Baucus would be a top target. That they managed to nominate an 85-year perennial candidate and former Democrat and former Green Party member Bob Kelleher just about sank any chances they had to make this race competitive.

26. Delaware (Incumbent: Biden)

Joe Biden's name will appear twice on the Delaware ballot - in the presidential race and in the senatorial one. Biden is extremely unlikely to lose the latter, as his opponent is a little-known and weakly-funded Republican activist. Of course, the GOP would love to tie Biden up to Delaware and make the Senate race competitive enough to force him to campaign there rather than in presidential battleground states, but they should have thought about that sooner (and frankly, if there was any risk of that happening, the Obama campaign would have insisted that he give up his Senate seat). If Biden wins both elections and moves to the Naval Observatory, outgoing Governor Ruth will appoint his successor before leaving office in January. That successor would have to run for a full term in a special election in November 2010.

28. Massachusetts (Incumbent: Kerry)

29. Illinois (Incumbent: Durbin)

30. Wyoming (Incumbent: Barrasso)

31. West Virginia (Incumbent: Rockefeller)

32. Mississippi (Incumbent: Cochran)

33. Rhode Island (Incumbent: Reed)

34. Wyoming (Incumbent: Enzi)

35. Arkansas (Incumbent: Pryor)

October 25th ratings

noreply@blogger.com (Taniel) — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 07:45:00 +0000

Outlook: Democratic pick-up a net 6-11 Senate seats.

History of Campaign Diaries's Senate rankings:

October 12th: Make it eleven (rating changes, full rankings)
September rankings: Democrats have 9 targets and GOP banks on McCain
July rankings: Democrats still looking for new targets
May rankings: The map shifts towards Democrats
January rankings: GOP prospects improve in a few seats
November '07 rankings: Republicans push back but remain in tight spot
October '07 rankings: Everything breaks for Democrats
August '07 rankings: How high can Democrats rise?

Safe Takeover (1 Republican seat, 0 Democratic seat)

1. Virginia (Open seat)

Likely Takeover (2 Republican seats, 0 Democratic seat)

2. New Mexico (Open)

3. Colorado (Open)

Lean Takeover (3 R, 0 D)

4. New Hampshire (Incumbent: John Sununu)

Last updated on September 23rd: Senator John Sununu trailed Jeanne Shaheen by double-digits even before she declared her candidacy, and the incumbent has long looked like a dead man walking. But some of the latest polls are finding a tightening race, and, contrary to expectations, the NRSC has not given up on this race. A barrage of ads is now attacking Shaheen for her gubernatorial record, portraying her as a tax-and-spend liberal in what has become a repeat of the GOP's 2002 strategy.

It is doubtful those attacks can be as successful against Shaheen as they were six years ago. After all, Shaheen has been out of office since then, and in that time it is Sununu who has become an incumbent with dubious associations. While attacks on taxes could once again attack Shaheen, the tax-and-spend charge is less damaging when the GOP brand is in shatters. But this is precisely where Sununu's path to salvation lies. In no state was the GOP more submerged by the blue tsunami in 2006; and in no state do Republicans stand more to gain if McCain improves the GOP's image and its standing among independents. There are signs that McCain is succeeding in that endeavor, and if that dynamic is confirmed in the weeks ahead, it could shift the fundamentals of New Hampshire's Senate race.

5. North Carolina (Incumbent: Elizabeth Dole)

6. Oregon (Incumbent: Gordon Smith)

Last updated on October 25th: Sen. Gordon Smith has been aware that he is vulnerable since the first days of the cycle and has done his best to prepare, but the environment is simply too toxic for Republicans - particularly in a blue state like Oregon. All polls suggest that Obama will crush McCain in the state, significantly outperforming Al Gore and John Kerry, a clear sign that Oregon’s independent voters are behaving like Democrats. The DSCC has been hammering Gordon Smith for months for his proximity to George Bush and for his party label, and it is remarkable that all of Smith’s ads touting his bipartisanship (some of which were quite effective) have not protected him. As if that was not enough, the Democratic surge of the past six weeks has perhaps damaged no Republican as much as Gordon Smith.

Merkley has now inched ahead in the latest polls and, while Merkley’s advantage remains narrow, Smith is stuck in the low 40s - very dangerous territory for an incumbent. That Merkley looks to be slightly ahead now is particularly significant because… Election Day is happening right now in Oregon. All voting is conducted via mail in Oregon, and the ballots arrived at voters’ home this week; these ballots have to be returned (not postmarked, returned) by November 4th, which means that most of the electorate will have voted by the middle of the next week. (As of Thursday, the ballots of 13% of registered voters had already arrived, with many more probably on the way.) All of this means that Smith has far less time than other endangered Republicans to try and turn the tide, and he will not benefit from any last-minute GOP surge.

All of this said, Smith is by no means out of the game, and this rating change is merely meant to reflect that Merkley now has a slight advantage. In particular, this is a race in which the GOP’s argument against unified government could resonate, and the liberal-leaning Oregonian endorsed Smith last week, warning against the possibility of a 60-seat Democratic Senate. That said, Smith is here plagued by the same problem we talked about above: Republicans have not yet started to make fear of a unified government the center of their congressional campaign, and even if they do that in the coming days, it might be too late in Oregon where many voters will have already cast their ballot.

Toss-up (3 R, 0 D)

7. Minnesota (Incumbent: Norm Coleman)

8. Alaska (Incumbent: Ted Stevens)

Last updated on October 12th: Contrary to conventional wisdom, there is no reason to categorize this seat as lean take-over when the result now looks to be almost entirely dependent on the decision of 12 Washington D.C. residents who are serving as the jury of Stevens’ trial. Mark Begich had pulled far ahead in July, but Stevens closed the gap over the past two months and seems to be convincing a sizable number of Alaskans that whether or not he is corrupt is irrelevant to the fact that he brings a lot of money to Alaska. The race is now a toss-up in the polls - the latest Ivan Moore survey has Begich leading by 4%, the latest Rasmussen has Stevens leading by 1%. If Stevens is found guilty, it should be enough to propel Begich over the top; but if Stevens is acquitted, it should him give him the last-minute boost he needs to come out on top. And as I explained yesterday, I am getting increasingly uncomfortable with the former scenario given how openly the prosecution has trampled defense rights in this trial.

9. Mississippi (Incumbent: Roger Wicker)

Last updated October 25th: Republicans felt much better about this state in the first half of September. Sarah Palin’s selection had invigorated the conservative base, and the post-convention GOP surge looked like it would be to put away races in very Republican areas. But things have shifted quite dramatically since my last rankings, and Ronnie Musgrove has gained as the conversation has turned to the economy. Research 2000 and Rasmussen have both showed him closing the gap Sen. Wicker had opened during the summer.

But there is another factor that has led me to move this race to a more competitive category: We have always known that Musgrove’s fortunes were tied to the level of black turnout, as race is the best predictor of the vote in Mississippi (Kerry got 14% of the white vote in 2004). Would Barack Obama’s presence at the top of the ticket boost African-American turnout? While we don’t have a response to that question in Mississippi, the early voting data that is being reported out of North Carolina and Georgia suggest that African-Americans are very motivated and that they might very well make up a far greater proportion of the electorate as they did in 2004. If that pattern holds in Mississippi, it could push Musgrove over the top.

This campaign has been particularly vicious, with both sides and the national committees exchanging brutal spots, with Democrats going after Wicker on economic issues (his votes against the minimum wage, for instance) and the GOP attacking Musgrove’s gubernatorial record. The Republican attacks have been more personal, as a subtext of the anti-Musgrove campaign has been the Democrat’s divorce as well as his efforts to change the Confederate-inspired state flag while he was governor; the GOP is also airing a gay-baiting ad tying Musgrove to the “homosexual agenda.”

Lean Retention (2 R, 1 D)

10. Georgia (Incumbent: Chambliss; Last ranking: 17)

Last updated on October 25th: Who knew that Saxby Chambliss was this vulnerable? Late late spring, there were many other candidates to join the group of highly competitive Senate contests: Maine, Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Idaho… Democrats were too busy figuring out what was happening in a divisive primary in Georgia to think ahead to the general election. But some polls showed potential immediately after Jim Martin’s nomination - and that was before the financial crisis undercut Chambliss’s defenses along with those of Republican candidates nationwide. Over the past few weeks, polls have shown that the race has dramatically closed to the low single digits and the stunningly high African-American turnout among early voters gives Martin a clear path to victory.

There is one bright spot for Chambliss, however: A blue wave would not only have to carry Jim Martin ahead of Saxby Chambliss for him to score a victory on November 4th, it would also have to get him across 50%. If neither candidate crosses that threshold (and that is very much possible given the candidacy of Libertarian candidate Allen Buckley), a runoff will be held on December 2nd. Such a runoff would seem to favor Sen. Chambliss. For one, Barack Obama would no longer be at the top of the ticket, which would make a boost in black turnout unlikely (African-Americans make up 35,4% of early voters for now, far higher than in 2004). Second, voters might not be looking to punish Republicans anymore by December 2nd, especially if Obama wins the presidency and if Democrats have already secured a big Senate majority. That would make it far easier for the GOP to argue that keeping Chambliss is necessary to not give Democrats too large a majority.

11. Kentucky (Incumbent: Mitch McConnell; Last Ranking: 12)

12. Louisiana (Incumbent: Mary Landrieu)

Likely retention (4 R, 1 D)

13. Maine (Incumbent: Susan Collins)

15. Idaho (Open)

16. New Jersey (Incumbent: Frank Lautenberg)

17. Nebraska (Open)

Safe

18. Texas (Incumbent: John Cornyn)

19. Kansas (Incumbent: Roberts)

20. South Dakota (Incumbent: Tim Johnson; Last Ranking: 20)

21. South Carolina (Incumbent: Graham)

21. Tennessee (Incumbent: Alexander)

22. Iowa (Incumbent: Harkin)

23. Alabama (Incumbent: Sessions)

24. Michigan (Incumbent: Levin)

25. Montana (Incumbent: Baucus)

26. Delaware (Incumbent: Biden)

28. Massachusetts (Incumbent: Kerry)

29. Illinois (Incumbent: Durbin)

30. Wyoming (Incumbent: Barrasso)

31. West Virginia (Incumbent: Rockefeller)

32. Mississippi (Incumbent: Cochran)

33. Rhode Island (Incumbent: Reed)

34. Wyoming (Incumbent: Enzi)

35. Arkansas (Incumbent: Pryor)

October 12th: Make it eleven

noreply@blogger.com (Taniel) — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 02:05:00 +0000

Democrats have been trying to expand the Senate map since the start of the cycle, and as of mid-September it looked like the GOP had managed to stop the bleeding by solidifying its position in a number of races that Democrats were eying. But Senate Republicans are now back in their downward spiral, the prospect of several incumbents badly damaged by the economic crisis. For the first time in the long history of my Senate ratings, there are a stunning 11 Republican-held seats that are rated as highly vulnerable (meaning that they are rated lean retention or above), two more than in my previous rankings.

Five of those seats are rated lean retention, but they are not the five you might expect, as Alaska and North Carolina are trading seats in these rating update. While her race remains hotly contested, Sen. Dole has fallen slightly behind in recent weeks (and Republican operatives are even more worried than poll numbers seem to justify); on the other hand, Sen. Stevens is looking surprisingly strong, and it looks likely that he would survive this race if he is acquitted in the coming weeks.

Complicating calculations is the fact that highly competitive seats tend to break heavily towards one party, as the national political breeze of the final days tips the balance to one side. That allowed the GOP to nearly sweep the table in 2002 and 2004, while in 2006 Democrats won 6 out of the 7 seats that could have been described as highly contested in the final week of the campaign (MO, MT, NJ, MD, VA, RI and TN). That makes it unlikely that Democratic pick-ups are somewhere at the middle of their range, say 6 or 7. Far more likely are that Republicans slightly improve their situation and save most of the seats that are now rated as toss-ups or lean Republican (holding Democrats at 4 or 5 pick-ups) or that Democrats push their advantage and sweep most of the seats now in contention (getting them to 9 or 10 pick-ups). At the present moment, this ought to worry Republicans, for Democrats have all the momentum and the blue wave is threatening to transform itself into yet another tsunami.

Outlook: Democratic pick-up a net 5-11 Senate seats.

Prediction: Democrats pick-up a net 8 seats, for a 59-41 majority.

History of Campaign Diaries's Senate rankings:

July rankings: Democrats still looking for new targets
May rankings: The map shifts towards Democrats
January rankings: GOP prospects improve in a few seats
November rankings: Republicans push back but remain in tight spot
October rankings: Everything breaks for Democrats
August rankings: How high can Democrats rise?

Likely Takeover (2 Republican seats, 0 Democratic seats)

1. Virginia (Open seat)

Last updated on September 23rd: Mark Warner's keynote speech at the Democratic convention contributed nothing to Barack Obama's election prospects, quite the contrary. But it certainly solidified his status as a favorite in Virginia's Senate race, as the state remains conservative-leaning and Warner's strength has long come from his popularity in rural regions long neglected by Democrats. No one expects this race to tighten as Election Day nears, and for now that conventional wisdom is proving right.

2. New Mexico (Open)

Last updated on September 23rd: While polls have long shown Tom Udall crushing Steve Pearce, the NRSC had not given up hope and had reserved $2.7 million of air time in the state to help Pearce. Yet, the Republican committee canceled that reservation earlier this week, signaling that they were no longer planning to contest New Mexico and admitting that the odds of Pearce coming back are too low for the GOP to spent its meager resources on this race. That said, Pearce is counting on independent groups to attack Udall, and Rasmussen's September survey found a tightening race.

Lean Takeover (3 R, 0 D)

3. New Hampshire (Incumbent: John Sununu)

Last updated on September 23rd: Senator John Sununu trailed Jeanne Shaheen by double-digits even before she declared her candidacy, and the incumbent has long looked like a dead man walking. But some of the latest polls are finding a tightening race, and, contrary to expectations, the NRSC has not given up on this race. A barrage of ads is now attacking Shaheen for her gubernatorial record, portraying her as a tax-and-spend liberal in what has become a repeat of the GOP's 2002 strategy.

It is doubtful those attacks can be as successful against Shaheen as they were six years ago. After all, Shaheen has been out of office since then, and in that time it is Sununu who has become an incumbent with dubious associations. While attacks on taxes could once again attack Shaheen, the tax-and-spend charge is less damaging when the GOP brand is in shatters. But this is precisely where Sununu's path to salvation lies. In no state was the GOP more submerged by the blue tsunami in 2006; and in no state do Republicans stand more to gain if McCain improves the GOP's image and its standing among independents. There are signs that McCain is succeeding in that endeavor, and if that dynamic is confirmed in the weeks ahead, it could shift the fundamentals of New Hampshire's Senate race.

4. Colorado (Open; Last Ranking: 4)

Last updated on September 23rd: The race has been remarkably predictable for much of the past year: Democrats are blasting Schaffer as ineffective and too conservative, Republicans are painting Mark Udall as a "Boulder liberal" beholden to the environmental lobby. And the polls have shown little evolution. Contrary to predictions, Udall has been unable to build on his narrow lead, though he has at least been able to maintain a consistent advantage.

In few races has the summer's energy debate helped the GOP more than in Colorado's Senate contest. Conservation has long been one of Udall's defining issues; but when Republicans decided to make drilling into their defining stance and when it appeared that voters were more in line with the pro-drilling position than had been anticipated, Udall's strength became his biggest liability. Udall was forced to reverse his position, which opened him instead to flip-flopping charges. The NRSC is now running an ad comparing Udall to shifting sand.

Udall remains favored, but he has not put it away and if the GOP's position improves over the next seven weeks Schaffer could squeak by.

5. North Carolina (Incumbent: Elizabeth Dole)

Last updated on October 5th: In my July ratings, I wrote that "the DSCC has been looking for more seats to contest, and has made a clear choice that North Carolina has the most potential." Within a matter of weeks, the DSCC's involvement has transformed the race into one of the year's most heated - and most surprisingly so. While we certainly knew that Senator Dole was vulnerable, Democrats were certainly not expecting for the incumbent’s standing to collapse so easily. Dole led by double-digits through July, but a hard-hitting campaign by the DSCC painting Dole as ineffective and lacking clout with brutal spots (here are the first and second) took care of Dole’s numbers. (When Dole aired an ad portraying Hagan as a yapping dog, the DSCC fired back by comparing Dole to a smoking car.) The race quickly became a toss-up by the end of August.

Since then, Hagan has inched ahead in a number of polls, with her lead extending as much as a 9% in the latest PPP survey! To make matters worse for Dole, Hagan will benefit from Obama’s turnout machine while McCain’s ground game is minimal in the Tar Heel state. Somewhat surprisingly, Republican operatives are very pessimistic about this race, dropping quotes in a multitude of press outlets about how bad Dole’s situation is. Though there is no question that Dole’s campaign has been strikingly weak and its attakcs on Hagan have failed to catch on, polls do not justify such a high level of despair. The race remains highly competitive, and it could easily find its way back to the toss-up column in upcoming weeks. For now, however, Hagan is riding the DSCC advertisements and Obama’s momentum in the state, and that is proving a lethal combination.

Toss-up (3 R, 0 D)

6. Alaska (Incumbent: Ted Stevens)

Last updated on October 12th: Contrary to conventional wisdom, there is no reason to categorize this seat as lean take-over when the result now looks to be almost entirely dependent on the decision of 12 Washington D.C. residents who are serving as the jury of Stevens’ trial. Mark Begich had pulled far ahead in July, but Stevens closed the gap over the past two months and seems to be convincing a sizable number of Alaskans that whether or not he is corrupt is irrelevant to the fact that he brings a lot of money to Alaska. The race is now a toss-up in the polls - the latest Ivan Moore survey has Begich leading by 4%, the latest Rasmussen has Stevens leading by 1%. If Stevens is found guilty, it should be enough to propel Begich over the top; but if Stevens is acquitted, it should him give him the last-minute boost he needs to come out on top. And as I explained yesterday, I am getting increasingly uncomfortable with the former scenario given how openly the prosecution has trampled defense rights in this trial.

7. Oregon (Incumbent: Gordon Smith)

Last updated on September 23rd: Given that Gordon Smith has run a particularly shrewd campaign and that Jeff Merkley has found himself in a financial hole for much of the summer, that the race remains very competitive is a testament to just how much Gordon Smith is being weighed down by his party label. And this week, Smith decided to embark on the same strategy John McCain and Norm Coleman have been pioneering: Disqualify his Democratic opponent and make voters put aside their dislike for the GOP by transforming the election in a referendum on Jeff Merkley.

Smith's latest ads have dragged the race down the gutter by using the Willie Horton template to strike fear in voters about Merkley's stance on criminal justice. By highlighting the story of one felon, Smith hopes to trigger a reaction of disgust among voters and have those repulsed feelings transferred unto Merkley. This is the type of ad that has the potential of altering the dynamics of a race if it is not properly fought against, and it is up to Democrats to make sure that Smith does not benefit as much as George H. W. Bush did 20 years ago. Fortunately for Merkley, the DSCC looks committed to helping him, as it recently moved in the state to air ads hitting Smith for his ties with the GOP and with Bush.

Up until now, Smith had attacked Merkley on smaller issues - most notably his redecorating the state legislature. And his primary advertising strategy had been to tout his maverick credentials, airing a series of ads in which he embraced Barack Obama and John Kerry. The most effective such ad was released in late August; it relied on clips from nightly news that all repeated that Gordon Smith had broken ranks with his party. This also means that Smith could find himself on the path to salvation if McCain leads independents to reassess their opinion of the GOP.

Perhaps in no other state will the dynamics of the presidential race and how they affect the year's political fundamentals matter as much. For now, it is difficult to say where the race stands. The race is polled frustratingly little; only 5 surveys have been released over the past 3 months. The latest (a Merkley internal poll) finds the Democrat gaining 9% in a month and taking a narrow lead.

9. Minnesota (Incumbent: Norm Coleman)

Last updated September 23rd: The media chose the Minnesota Senate race as this cycle's marquee match-up more than a year ago, before there was any evidence of whether the contest would live up to the hype. In 2006, the Casey-Santorum battle was similarly drummed up but it turned out to be a relatively dull race without much movement. But this time the expectations were spot on: No Senate race has been as heated and as nasty as the all-out war between Al Franken and Norm Coleman.

For much of the spring, Coleman put Franken on the defensive with a series of controversies on Franken's past - and his best summer efforts to keep the conversation on these issues were boosted by the fact that a Democrat started airing even harsher spots against Franken's "record of degradation of minorities and women." But Franken has effectively turned the table on Coleman by hitting the incumbent's ethics in a series of spot (here's part 1 and part 2) that conclude with “stay tuned for more,” in an attempt to transform Coleman’s ethical misconduct in some sort of eagerly-awaited mini-series. And Franken has also relied on the DSCC, which has become increasingly involved in the race and is airing ads tying Coleman to the Bush Administration - the Democrat's most predictable strategy this election year.

We have long known that this election would be defined over which campaign manages to put the spotlight on his opponent: Democrats want to make this a referendum on Coleman's party label, and Republicans want to make it into a referendum on Franken's past. As Democrats have made progress over recent months, the comfortable lead Coleman posted throughout the summer has melted. SUSA (which had found Coleman up outside the MoE since March) now has a 1% race, and Minnesota Public Radio recently found Franken ahead by as much. It's no surprise, then, that Coleman just unleashed his harshest negative ad yet, attacking Franken's temperament in an effort to put the spotlight back on the Democrat.

Lean Retention (1 R, 1 D)

9. Mississippi (Incumbent: Roger Wicker; Last Ranking: 6)

Last updated September 23rd: This race has gotten increasingly nasty over the past few weeks, and the former roommates have quickly become bitter political rivals. Both campaigns are going after their opponent's shady ethics (for instance, Wicker is attacking Musgrove over the beef plant scandal) and both the DSCC and the NRSC are advertising in the state. As is expected in such a red state, Musgrove is trying to minimize his party affiliation by running a very conservative campaign and attacking Wicker for not being enough like McCain! But as I explained recently in a detailed analysis of the race's dynamics, this race is anything but routine. In fact, it is in total confusion.

For one, the contest is now once again subject to a legal challenge. The GOP-controlled state Election Commission took another controversial move by placing the Musgrove-Wicker Senate race at the very bottom of the ballot - after obscure races like local school boards - even though a state law that says federal elections have to be placed at the top of the ballot. A judge has issued a restraining order, blocking the state from printing ballots until the issue is resolved. Will the ballot stand? If so, will it hurt Democrats by burying a race, boosting the incumbent reflex and lowering black participation in this election? Or will it backfire on Republicans by depriving them of the white electorate's reflex to vote GOP in federal races and by preventing Wicker from riding McCain's coattails?

There are other questions as well: How much will Obama's presence on the ballot boost black turnout? How much will it boost white turnout? How will the fact that the two candidates' party affiliation will not be on the ballot affect the race? Will it be more of a boost for Musgrove to avoid his party label in this deeply red state or more of a problem if African-Americans voters skip this contest, not realizing that he is a Democrat?

For now, one question mark has been answered in Wicker's favor: There was talk of Obama investing some resources in the state, which would have been a big boost for Musgrove, but that did not work out. Another advantage for Wicker is that he has the time to strengthen his incumbency status and introduce himself to voters. As Gustav suspended campaigning and allowed incumbents to shine, Sen. Wicker touted his role in preparing for Gustav. "Almost everything that we have been able to do from the federal level [since 2005] has my fingerprints on it," he told the press. And Wicker appears to be gaining a slight advantage. Rasmussen has found Wicker jumping to a 9% lead, and Research 2000 finds him ahead by 5%.

10. Louisiana (Incumbent: Mary Landrieu)

Last updated September 23rd: Much like Mississippi's Wicker, Mary Landrieu stands to benefit from the added exposure for incumbents that came with Gustav and she is already running an ad touting her work on damage prevention. However, she also could lose more from the demobilization of New Orleans. That city is essential to statewide Democratic victories in this state, will residents be thinking about the election in the coming week and can they be organized?

Gustav aside, Landrieu has enjoyed a strong summer. Her campaign has relentlessly and effectively pounced on Kennedy, using his party switch to blast him as a "confused" and flip-flopping politician in a series of hard-hitting ads. And in a clear sign that Louisiana's politics tilt to the right, the Landrieu campaign mocked Kennedy for supporting "liberal John Kerry" in 2004. These efforts are aimed at cutting Kennedy's support among conservatives, feed resentment among Democratic voters and make him look unprincipled to independents - that was, after all, one of the central claims of Kennedy's campaign. As a result, Kennedy has been forced on the defensive and Landrieu has taken a comfortable lead in the most recent poll.

11. Georgia (Incumbent: Chambliss; Last ranking: 17)

Last updated on October 12th: Who knew that Saxby Chambliss was this vulnerable? Late late spring, there were many other candidates to join the group of highly competitive Senate contests: Maine, Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Idaho… Democrats were too busy figuring out what was happening in a divisive primary in Georgia to think ahead to the general election. But some polls showed potential immediately after Jim Martin’s nomination - and that as before the financial crisis undercut Chambliss’s defenses along with those of Republican candidates nationwide. Chambliss retains an edge, but polls have shown that the race has dramatically closed to the low single digits.

Yet, the DSCC is not running ads on Martin's behalf. That is certainly understandable (the DSCC is running ads in 9 states…), but unless the Democratic wind is really strong it could mean that Martin is unable to take full advantage of his opening. Martin’s success might very well depend on Obama’s coattails and on whether the Illinois Senator increases the share of the black vote in the state. Early voting indicators are very strong for Democrats, but Martin would have been in a far stronger position had Obama not pulled out of the state in mid-September.

12. Kentucky (Incumbent: Mitch McConnell; Last Ranking: 12)

Last updated on October 12th: We have known that Mitch McConnell is highly vulnerable since polls released in the fall of 2007 showed him barely beating a number of Democrats. Yet, many top-tier Democrats passed on the race and Bruce Lunsford simply did not seem a strong enough candidate to make it this tight (nor would he be a reliable enough Democrat for progressives to get excited over). But the race has been highly engaged for months, with both candidates running vicious ads (Lunsford has been particularly smart by contrasting McCain’s reformist image to McConnell’s insider status).

Over the past few weeks, polls have shown the gap has closed, with Mason Dixon going as far as showing a tie; most other pollsters show McConnell leading in single digits. The DSCC has just gone up on air against McConnell, further proof that Democrats are determined to bring down the Senate’s Republican leader. In the context of the financial crisis, it might no longer matter how good or bad a candidate is as long as he has a “D” next to his name; as the Senate Minority Leader, McConnell is that much more likely to suffer from voter anger about Washington and about Republicans.

Likely retention (9 R, 2 D)

13. Maine (Incumbent: Susan Collins)

Last updated September 23rd: This is not a race that is making much noise - and that's bad for Democrats considering they have been failing to put in the competitive category. The DSCC has not canceled its $5 million reservation on state airwaves, but it's already mid-September and there is still no sign of Democratic willingness to go after Susan Collins. Tom Allen's ads have been positive biographical spots, but that will not get the job done against a popular incumbent. If they are not given a convincing reason to throw Collins out, Maine voters are likely to stick with the incumbent, and it is really not surprising that Allen continues to trail widely in the most recent polling - 17% and 19% in the latest Rasmussen and Research 2000 surveys.

14. Idaho (Open)

Last updated on September 23rd: Lieutenant Governor Jim Risch is performing as he has to perform to win the election - but not enough to discourage Democrats. Two summer polls have Risch's lead hovering at the double-digit mark, but stuck way under 50%. That has some Democrats hoping and the DSCC is reportedly starting to take a look at this race. A third poll released this week has Risch leading by 28%, though it does include independent and conservative candidate Rex Rammell.

Indeed, the GOP is reportedly worried Rammell might siphon votes away from Risch. Rep. Sali is said to have contacted Rammell and two other conservative candidates, urging them to drop out of the race. But the GOP's attempt to kick Rammell off the ballot failed in early September, as the state Supreme Court upheld Rammell's petition. Now, LaRocco is trying his best to raise Rammell's profile. While Risch continues to refuse to debate, LaRocco and Rammell held a debate - an opportunity for both to make this as much of a three-way race as possible. Summer polls are finding Rammell getting only in the mid-single digits.

15. New Jersey (Incumbent: Frank Lautenberg)

Last updated on September 23rd: As is usual in New Jersey, polls are all over the place, from an 18% lead for Lautenberg to a 1% lead for Zimmer (in a Club for Growth poll). Most surveys are finding the Democratic incumbent hovering around the 10% mark. In New Jersey's peculiar political universe, for a Democrat to lead by 10% in September is as large a lead as he can hope for. But the state GOP has got to believe that they will at some point break their New Jersey curse.

16. Oklahoma (Incumbent: Jim Inhofe)

Last updated September 23rd: Democrats have been eying this race for a while, but the only sign that it might be competitive is an internal DSCC poll that finds Inhofe up by 9%. The other two surveys from the state (Sooner and SUSA) find Inhofe crushing his challenger by more than 20%. At the very least, Inhofe is taking Andrew Rice seriously to air an attack ad portraying Rice as too liberal for Oklahoma; but in a red state like this one, that l-word is a tough accusation to recover from, and Rice would need the DSCC's help to have a chance. That does not look like it will be happening.

17. Texas (Incumbent: John Cornyn)

Last updated September 23rd: In May, a number of polls showed Senator Cornyn unexpectedly weak against state Senator Rick Noriega but the incumbent's number have recovered since then. That the DSCC is making no move to help Noriega is telling.

18. Kansas (Incumbent: Roberts)

Last updated September 23rd: A series of polls in May and June that found Republican incumbent Pat Roberts up by smaller margins than he ought to have been against former Democratic Rep. Jim Slattery. But polls since then have found him regaining a solid lead and, just the DSCC has been as silent about this race as it has been about Texas.

19. Nebraska (Open)

Last updated in July: Considering this race keeps falling down the rankings, it is hard to believe that Nebraska was once ranked fourth. Chuck Hagel's retirement created a short-lived opportunity for Democrats. Former Republican Governor Johanns soon jumped in the race and Democrats Bob Kerrey and Mike Fahey announced they would not run. Democrats nominated Scott Kleeb, a promising candidate who did surprisingly well in NE-03 in 2006. Yet, Nebraska remains very Republican and Johanns is as strong a candidate as the GOP could have run. Polls confirm that it will take a miracle for Kleeb to move to Washington.

20. South Dakota (Incumbent: Tim Johnson; Last Ranking: 20)

Safe

21. South Carolina (Incumbent: Graham)

21. Tennessee (Incumbent: Alexander)

22. Iowa (Incumbent: Harkin)

23. Alabama (Incumbent: Sessions)

24. Michigan (Incumbent: Levin)

25. Montana (Incumbent: Baucus)

At the beginning of the cycle, some Republicans were murmuring that Max Baucus would be a top target. That they managed to nominate an 85-year perennial candidate and former Democrat and former Green Party member Bob Kelleher just about sank any chances they had to make this race competitive.

26. Delaware (Incumbent: Biden)

Joe Biden's name will appear twice on the Delaware ballot - in the presidential race and in the senatorial one. Biden is extremely unlikely to lose the latter, as his opponent is a little-known and weakly-funded Republican activist. Of course, the GOP would love to tie Biden up to Delaware and make the Senate race competitive enough to force him to campaign there rather than in presidential battleground states, but they should have thought about that sooner (and frankly, if there was any risk of that happening, the Obama campaign would have insisted that he give up his Senate seat). If Biden wins both elections and moves to the Naval Observatory, outgoing Governor Ruth will appoint his successor before leaving office in January. That successor would have to run for a full term in a special election in November 2010.

28. Massachusetts (Incumbent: Kerry)

29. Illinois (Incumbent: Durbin)

30. Wyoming (Incumbent: Barrasso)

31. West Virginia (Incumbent: Rockefeller)

32. Mississippi (Incumbent: Cochran)

33. Rhode Island (Incumbent: Reed)

34. Wyoming (Incumbent: Enzi)

35. Arkansas (Incumbent: Pryor)

September rankings: Democrats have 9 targets and GOP banks on McCain

noreply@blogger.com (Taniel) — Sun, 21 Sep 2008 05:37:00 +0000

Over the past two months, the Senate playing field has gotten much clearer, and the gap between competitive seats and sleeper races has widened.

On the one hand, Democrats have solidified their position in the top-tier. They have managed to catapult North Carolina into the toss-up category, finally reaching their goal of putting 9 GOP-held seats in play. As a series of stunning developments in Alaska left the GOP pinning its hopes on an indicted incumbent, there now are five Republican-held seats that are leaning towards Democrats. That is not to say that Democrats can take 5 seats for granted (in fact, they appear to have sealed the deal in only two contests), but a testament to the fact that Senate Democrats remain poised to have a strong night on November 4th.

On the other hand, Democratic chances in longer-shot races are fading; two months from Election Day, there is no more time for a wait-and-see policy, big polling leads matter more than they did in the spring, and the GOP still has little reason to worry about Maine, Kentucky, Texas and Kansas. The Palin pick might have helped the GOP put some of these seats out of the Democrats' reach by energizing the Republican base. Among the second-to-third contest, only in Georgia have Democrats improved their chances, as the DSCC is looking with great interest in Jim Martin's direction.

That said, recent changes in the political atmospheres should give hope to Republicans that they can survive this cycle without a massive meltdown. In fact, Republicans' potential to cut its losses has never been as high as it is today. This is due to factors at the micro level (Stevens being found not guilty in late October could suffice for the GOP to save his seat) but also to national trends. The GOP convention appears to have improved the Republican brand and boosted John McCain among independents. If McCain confirms these gains in the weeks ahead, convinces voters that he represents a new Republican Party and brings back GOP-leaning independents that had deserted the party in 2006, a number of Republican incumbents stand to benefit - most notably John Sununu, Norm Coleman and Gordon Smith.

Just how big the Democrats' majority is in the 111th congress will thus depend on the dynamics of the presidential race, but also on a number of local questions: What verdict will Ted Stevens receive? Has Gordon Smith improved his image among independents enough to sustain a barrage of DSCC attacks, and how will his latest and nastiest attack against Jeff Merkley play out? Will Obama succeed in boosting black turnout in Mississippi and Georgia? Will Franken succeed in putting Coleman on the defensive by attacking his ethics?

Outlook: Democratic pick-up a net 4-9 Senate seats.

Prediction: Democrats pick-up a net 7 seats, for a 58-42 majority.

History of Campaign Diaries's Senate rankings:

July rankings: Democrats still looking for new targets
May rankings: The map shifts towards Democrats
January rankings: GOP prospects improve in a few seats
November rankings: Republicans push back but remain in tight spot
October rankings: Everything breaks for Democrats
August rankings: How high can Democrats rise?

Likely Takeover (2 Republican seats, 0 Democratic seats)

1. Virginia (Open seat)

Mark Warner's keynote speech at the Democratic convention contributed nothing to Barack Obama's election prospects, quite the contrary. But it certainly solidified his status as a favorite in Virginia's Senate race, as the state remains conservative-leaning and Warner's strength has long come from his popularity in rural regions long neglected by Democrats. No one expects this race to tighten as Election Day nears, and for now that conventional wisdom is proving right.

2. New Mexico (Open)

While polls have long shown Tom Udall crushing Steve Pearce, the NRSC had not given up hope and had reserved $2.7 million of air time in the state to help Pearce. Yet, the Republican committee canceled that reservation earlier this week, signaling that they were no longer planning to contest New Mexico and admitting that the odds of Pearce coming back are too low for the GOP to spent its meager resources on this race. That said, Pearce is counting on independent groups to attack Udall, and Rasmussen's September survey found a tightening race.

Lean Takeover (3 R, 0 D)

3. New Hampshire (Incumbent: John Sununu; Last ranking: 3)

Senator John Sununu trailed Jeanne Shaheen by double-digits even before she declared her candidacy, and the incumbent has long looked like a dead man walking. But some of the latest polls are finding a tightening race, and, contrary to expectations, the NRSC has not given up on this race. A barrage of ads is now attacking Shaheen for her gubernatorial record, portraying her as a tax-and-spend liberal in what has become a repeat of the GOP's 2002 strategy.

4. Colorado (Open; Last Ranking: 4)

The race has been remarkably predictable for much of the past year: Democrats are blasting Schaffer as ineffective and too conservative, Republicans are painting Mark Udall as a "Boulder liberal" beholden to the environmental lobby. And the polls have shown little evolution. Contrary to predictions, Udall has been unable to build on his narrow lead, though he has at least been able to maintain a consistent advantage.

In few races has the summer's energy debate helped the GOP more than in Colorado's Senate contest. Conservation has long been one of Udall's defining issues; but when Republicans decided to make drilling into their defining stance and when it appeared that voters were more in line with the pro-drilling position than had been anticipated, Udall's strength became his biggest liability. Udall was forced to reverse his position, which opened him instead to flip-flopping charges. The NRSC is now running an ad comparing Udall to shifting sand.

Udall remains favored, but he has not put it away and if the GOP's position improves over the next seven weeks Schaffer could squeak by.

5. Alaska (Incumbent: Ted Stevens; Last Ranking: 5 and toss-up)

This race has been a roller-coaster since my last rankings. Ted Stevens had long been under investigation for corruption, but the situation worsened on July 29th when the longtime Republican Senator was indicted. This set the GOP in panic mode, as a seat that just a year ago was ranked 14th in my very first Senate rankings was now looking dangerously imperiled. The first post-indictment polls (Rasmussen, Ivan Moore) found Stevens trailing by double-digits.

Stevens looked toast, and we were even questioning whether he would survive his primary. But on August 26th, Stevens easily dispatched minor Republican opponents (who nevertheless spent hundreds of thousands of their own money hitting the incumbent) and won his party's nomination. The GOP was hoping to convince Stevens to drop out of the race for his name to be replaced for a cleaner Republican with a better chance of winning, but Stevens looks determined to press on, all but ensuring that the GOP is stuck with him on the ballot.

The seat seemed lost for the GOP at that point, but Stevens has managed to rebound in a series of early September polls, suggesting that the indictment shock is fading and that Stevens is making inroads with his emphasis on the clout he has in Washington. The race looks to be inching back towards a toss-up.

The fate of this race looks to be entirely out of the hands of both campaigns. It is the 12 men and women of the jury of a corruption trial that are likely to decide who wins the November election. Stevens convinced a DC judge to advance his trial, which will start towards the end of September. If Stevens is found guilty, the last-minute shock will replicate the July surprise and would all but guarantee a Begich victory. If he is found innocent, the boost he would receive would be likely to propel him to victory since he has closed the gap already. So what if the trial does not end before the election? Stevens' defense lawyers are mounting a very vigorous defense, and this outcome is now very much a possibility. My sense is that it would then be difficult for Stevens to survive: the trial is in DC, meaning that Stevens cannot campaign in Alaska and news of his trial and of revelations will dominate the local press.

Toss-up (3 R, 0 D)

6. North Carolina (Incumbent: Elizabeth Dole; Last Ranking: 10 and lean retention)

In my July ratings, I wrote that "the DSCC has been looking for more seats to contest, and has made a clear choice that North Carolina has the most potential." Within a matter of weeks, the DSCC's involvement has transformed the race into one of the year's most heated; and as Dole's numbers collapsed, Democrats are now seeing a clear opportunity to capture a race that was on few people's radar screen at the beginning of the year.

The extent of Dole's vulnerability became clear in May when Dole got a huge bounce from her primary victory and catapulted into a dead heat. Dole followed that up by launching a big ad blitz in late May-early June and that allowed her to regain a double-digit advantage. But the harm had been done: When an incumbent that is as well-known as Dole sees her numbers go up and down that dramatically based on the latest headlines and two weeks worth of ads, it is clear that her support is fundamentally weak.

The DSCC seized on Dole's vulnerability in early August and launched a wave of advertisement painting Dole as ineffective and lacking clout with brutal spots (here are the first and second) that claimed she ranked 93rd in terms of effectiveness. And when Dole aired an ad portraying Hagan as a yapping dog, the DSCC fired back by comparing Dole to a smoking car. It is surprising to see the DSCC this committed to this race, but there is surely much more to come. Remember that the Democratic committee reserved up to $6 million of air time for the fall.

The Democrats' aggressive strategy has been successful beyond expectations, as the race is now a complete toss-up. Recent polls have found Hagan in the lead by as much as 5% and Dole in the lead by as much as 8%. If the race remains close the the end, the winner could very well be decided by the dynamics of the presidential race and how well Obama's turnout operation functions. If Democrats manage to lift African-American's share of the electorate from 19% to the 22-24% range, it could make the difference here.

7. Oregon (Incumbent: Gordon Smith; Last Ranking: 7)

Given that Gordon Smith has run a particularly shrewd campaign and that Jeff Merkley has found himself in a financial hole for much of the summer, that the race remains very competitive is a testament to just how much Gordon Smith is being weighed down by his party label. And this week, Smith decided to embark on the same strategy John McCain and Norm Coleman have been pioneering: Disqualify his Democratic opponent and make voters put aside their dislike for the GOP by transforming the election in a referendum on Jeff Merkley.

Smith's latest ads have dragged the race down the gutter by using the Willie Horton template to strike fear in voters about Merkley's stance on criminal justice. By highlighting the story of one felon, Smith hopes to trigger a reaction of disgust among voters and have those repulsed feelings transferred unto Merkley. This is the type of ad that has the potential of altering the dynamics of a race if it is not properly fought against, and it is up to Democrats to make sure that Smith does not benefit as much as George H. W. Bush did 20 years ago. Fortunately for Merkley, the DSCC looks committed to helping him, as it recently moved in the state to air ads hitting Smith for his ties with the GOP and with Bush.

Up until now, Smith had attacked Merkley on smaller issues - most notably his redecorating the state legislature. And his primary advertising strategy had been to tout his maverick credentials, airing a series of ads in which he embraced Barack Obama and John Kerry. The most effective such ad was released in late August; it relied on clips from nightly news that all repeated that Gordon Smith had broken ranks with his party. This also means that Smith could find himself on the path to salvation if McCain leads independents to reassess their opinion of the GOP.

Perhaps in no other state will the dynamics of the presidential race and how they affect the year's political fundamentals matter as much. For now, it is difficult to say where the race stands. The race is polled frustratingly little; only 5 surveys have been released over the past 3 months. The latest (a Merkley internal poll) finds the Democrat gaining 9% in a month and taking a narrow lead.

9. Minnesota (Incumbent: Norm Coleman; Last Ranking: 9 and lean retention)

The media chose the Minnesota Senate race as this cycle's marquee match-up more than a year ago, before there was any evidence of whether the contest would live up to the hype. In 2006, the Casey-Santorum battle was similarly drummed up but it turned out to be a relatively dull race without much movement. But this time the expectations were spot on: No Senate race has been as heated and as nasty as the all-out war between Al Franken and Norm Coleman.

Lean Retention (1 R, 1 D)

9. Mississippi (Incumbent: Roger Wicker; Last Ranking: 6)

This race has gotten increasingly nasty over the past few weeks, and the former roommates have quickly become bitter political rivals. Both campaigns are going after their opponent's shady ethics (for instance, Wicker is attacking Musgrove over the beef plant scandal) and both the DSCC and the NRSC are advertising in the state. As is expected in such a red state, Musgrove is trying to minimize his party affiliation by running a very conservative campaign and attacking Wicker for not being enough like McCain! But as I explained recently in a detailed analysis of the race's dynamics, this race is anything but routine. In fact, it is in total confusion.

For one, the contest is now once again subject to a legal challenge. The GOP-controlled state Election Commission took another controversial move by placing the Musgrove-Wicker Senate race at the very bottom of the ballot - after obscure races like local school boards - even though a state law that says federal elections have to be placed at the top of the ballot. A judge has issued a restraining order, blocking the state from printing ballots until the issue is resolved. Will the ballot stand? If so, will it hurt Democrats by burying a race, boosting the incumbent reflex and lowering black participation in this election? Or will it backfire on Republicans by depriving them of the white electorate's reflex to vote GOP in federal races and by preventing Wicker from riding McCain's coattails?

There are other questions as well: How much will Obama's presence on the ballot boost black turnout? How much will it boost white turnout? How will the fact that the two candidates' party affiliation will not be on the ballot affect the race? Will it be more of a boost for Musgrove to avoid his party label in this deeply red state or more of a problem if African-Americans voters skip this contest, not realizing that he is a Democrat?

For now, one question mark has been answered in Wicker's favor: There was talk of Obama investing some resources in the state, which would have been a big boost for Musgrove, but that did not work out. Another advantage for Wicker is that he has the time to strengthen his incumbency status and introduce himself to voters. As Gustav suspended campaigning and allowed incumbents to shine, Sen. Wicker touted his role in preparing for Gustav. "Almost everything that we have been able to do from the federal level [since 2005] has my fingerprints on it," he told the press. And Wicker appears to be gaining a slight advantage. Rasmussen has found Wicker jumping to a 9% lead, and Research 2000 finds him ahead by 5%.

10. Louisiana (Incumbent: Mary Landrieu; Last Ranking: 7 and toss-up)

Much like Mississippi's Wicker, Mary Landrieu stands to benefit from the added exposure for incumbents that came with Gustav and she is already running an ad touting her work on damage prevention. However, she also could lose more from the demobilization of New Orleans. That city is essential to statewide Democratic victories in this state, will residents be thinking about the election in the coming week and can they be organized?

Likely retention (9 R, 2 D)

11. Georgia (Incumbent: Chambliss; Last ranking: 17)

The DSCC was closely monitoring the results of the Democratic primary to see whether it had any hope of toppling Saxby Chambliss, a Republican incumbent despised by Democrats. While Vernon Jordan seemed to controversial a figure to have a shot, former state Senator Jim Martin seemed to be a more promising prospect. In the crowded primary's first round Jordan topped Martin by a sizable margin, but Martin came back to crush Jordan in the runoff. Don't expect Georgia to join the top-tier anytime soon, but Democrats believe that this could be the sleeper race of the 2008 cycle and point to two polls released in the past month that show a 6% margin between the incumbent and his Democratic challenger.

The GOP has too many more obviously competitive races on its hand to worry about Georgia, and that could play into the Democrats' hand. If the DSCC is convinced, national Democrats could devote millions to this race to test the incumbent's vulnerabilities and exploit the fact that the NRSC is unlikely to get involved until it has proof that Martin is a threat. And this indeed seems like a long shot, though Martin's prospects will surely depend on how successful Obama's voter registration and turnout effort is. Democrats have not contested Georgia in a presidential election in many cycles, and those coattails could give Martin a few extra points.

12. Kentucky (Incumbent: Mitch McConnell; Last Ranking: 12)

As expected, Mitch McConnell is using his big war chest to bury Bruce Lunsford under ads, some of which tout McConnell's clout and the work he does on behalf of Kentucky, while others blast Lunsford's ties to Big Oil. Lunsford has enough money he can put in the race to keep it competitive and at the very least force McConnell to stay at home, but this is not the golden opportunity it looked to be for Democrats at the end of 2007.

13. Maine (Incumbent: Susan Collins; Last Ranking: 11)

This is not a race that is making much noise - and that's bad for Democrats considering they have been failing to put in the competitive category. The DSCC has not canceled its $5 million reservation on state airwaves, but it's already mid-September and there is still no sign of Democratic willingness to go after Susan Collins. Tom Allen's ads have been positive biographical spots, but that will not get the job done against a popular incumbent. If they are not given a convincing reason to throw Collins out, Maine voters are likely to stick with the incumbent, and it is really not surprising that Allen continues to trail widely in the most recent polling - 17% and 19% in the latest Rasmussen and Research 2000 surveys.

14. Idaho (Open; Last Ranking: 16)

Lieutenant Governor Jim Risch is performing as he has to perform to win the election - but not enough to discourage Democrats. Two summer polls have Risch's lead hovering at the double-digit mark, but stuck way under 50%. That has some Democrats hoping and the DSCC is reportedly starting to take a look at this race. A third poll released this week has Risch leading by 28%, though it does include independent and conservative candidate Rex Rammell.

15. New Jersey (Incumbent: Frank Lautenberg; Last ranking: 14)

As is usual in New Jersey, polls are all over the place, from an 18% lead for Lautenberg to a 1% lead for Zimmer (in a Club for Growth poll). Most surveys are finding the Democratic incumbent hovering around the 10% mark. In New Jersey's peculiar political universe, for a Democrat to lead by 10% in September is as large a lead as he can hope for. But the state GOP has got to believe that they will at some point break their New Jersey curse.

16. Texas (Incumbent: John Cornyn; Last Ranking: 13)

17. Kansas (Incumbent: Roberts: Last ranking: 15)

18. Oklahoma (Incumbent: Jim Inhofe; Last ranking: 18)

Democrats have been eying this race for a while, but the only sign that it might be competitive is an internal DSCC poll that finds Inhofe up by 9%. The other two surveys from the state (Sooner and SUSA) find Inhofe crushing his challenger by more than 20%. At the very least, Inhofe is taking Andrew Rice seriously to air an attack ad portraying Rice as too liberal for Oklahoma; but in a red state like this one, that l-word is a tough accusation to recover from, and Rice would need the DSCC's help to have a chance. That does not look like it will be happening.

19. Nebraska (Open; Last Ranking: 19)

20. South Dakota (Incumbent: Tim Johnson; Last Ranking: 20)

Safe

21. Tennessee (Incumbent: Alexander)

22. Iowa (Incumbent: Harkin)

23. Alabama (Incumbent: Sessions)

24. Michigan (Incumbent: Levin)

25. Montana (Incumbent: Baucus: Last ranking: 22)

26. Delaware (Incumbent: Biden)

31. West Virginia (Incumbent: Rockefeller)

32. Mississippi (Incumbent: Cochran)

33. Rhode Island (Incumbent: Reed)

34. Wyoming (Incumbent: Enzi)

35. Arkansas (Incumbent: Pryor)

July rankings: Democrats still looking for new targets

noreply@blogger.com (Taniel) — Tue, 10 Jun 2008 17:45:00 +0000

Whatever the make-up of the 111th Congress, no one will be able to say that Democrats didn't try everything in their power to reach a 60-seat majority. As of the spring of 2008, there already were eight highly competitive seats that no one would be surprised to see turn-over: With Virginia and New Mexico all but lost for Republicans (and Senator Ensign acknowledging just as much), the GOP is in grave danger in New Hampshire, Colorado, Alaska, Mississippi, Oregon and Minnesota. On the other hand, Republican attempts to go on the offensive have been disastrous, with only Louisiana looking competitive.

Among these nine initial seats - eight of which are held by Republicans - the rating of four has changed this month. New Mexico has moved from lean Democrat to likely Democrat, Colorado from toss-up to lean Democrat, and Oregon from lean Republican to toss-up. Only Minnesota has moved in the opposite direction, from toss-up to Lean Republican.

9 competitive seats is already a large number - comparable to the field of play two years ago. But with 2008 shaping up to be as good a Democratic year as 2006, the DSCC is aware that it has to do the most of this opportunity and is eager to put even more seats in play. As a result, we have seen a lot of actions since my previous Senate rankings in the second and third-tier of GOP-held seats: In North Carolina, strong polling by Kay Hagan forced Elizabeth Dole to air a round of advertisements, but the DSCC has reserved up to $6 million of air time in the fall. This race is the most likely candidate to join the "initial nine."

In Maine, Democrats have still not been able to tie Susan Collins to her party label, but the $5 million the DSCC is budgeting for the fall campaign is a huge amount of money for this inexpensive state. In Kentucky, Bruce Lunsford's primary victory certainly exasperated progressives, but the first slate of polls suggests all hope is not lost for Democrats. As for Texas, Kansas and even Idaho, Democrats would need titanic shifts that for now remain unimaginable, but the mere fact that these races are being discussed is horrendous news for the GOP.

Will Democrats be able to go beyond eight serious targets and seriously contest one of these long-shot races? How close will they come to a sweep of their initial eight targets and will they save Louisiana? These are the obvious questions to ask out of these new rankings and I will be closely monitoring any signs of further shifts in the electoral map. More precise questions that will come to determine the make-up of the next Senate include: Will John Sununu be able to take advantage of McCain's good name in New Hampshire to appeal to independents? How much will Obama boost black turnout in Louisiana and in Mississippi? Will Al Franken be able to put his personal controversies behind him? And is the Maine electorate already over Bush?

Outlook: Democratic pick-up a net 5-9 Senate seats.

Prediction: Democrats pick-up a net 7 seats, for a 58-42 majority.

History of Campaign Diaries's Senate rankings:

May rankings: The map shifts towards Democrats
January rankings: GOP prospects improve in a few seats
November rankings: Republicans push back but remain in tight spot
October rankings: Everything breaks for Democrats
August rankings: How high can Democrats rise?

Likely Takeover (1 Republican seat, 0 Democratic seats)

1. Virginia (Open seat; Previous Ranking: 1)

It is hard to believe that Jim Gilmore's situation has worsened over the past two months given how much of an underdog the former Republican Governor was to start with. It is never a good sign when a presumptive nominee wins his party’s nod with 50.3% of the vote, but that is what happened to Gilmore at his party's nominating convention. As if this proof of an unenergized conservative base was not enough, the state GOP's moderate wing is also backing away from Gilmore: incumbent Senator John Warner, the Republican whom Gilmore is seeking to replace, is refusing to endorse his own party's nominee! The only hope for Republicans to retain this seat is for Barack Obama to tap Mark Warner as his running-mate. Warner might very well have been the favorite in the veepstakes... if he were not favored to win this Senate race.

2. New Mexico (Open; Last ranking: 2 and lean take-over)

Three giants of New Mexico politics entered this race after Senator Domenici announced his retirement back in October. The political career of one of them has already been cut short: Rep. Heather Wilson lost a heated and narrow GOP primary to Rep. Steve Pearce, leaving him in a difficult match-up against Democratic Rep. Tom Udall. Pearce is much more conservative than Wilson, making it more difficult for him to appeal to independents in this blue-leaning year, but Wilson had her own ethical issues.

This is an open seat in a swing-state in a Democratic year -- that by itself is a recipe for success Democrats, just as it was in Minnesota in 2006. In a very similar situation, Amy Klochubar opened a large lead against Rep. Kennedy in what was supposed to be a competitive open seat. Now, Udall is leading Pearce by 2:1 in recent polls and has 6 times more cash on hand than his Republican rival. That means Pearce is dependent on the help of the NRSC, help that is unlikely to come. In mid-June, Sen. Ensign, the NRSC chairman, implied that his committee was giving up on the Virginia and New Mexico races. That just about seals the deal in this race.

Lean Takeover (2 R, 0 D)

3. New Hampshire (Incumbent: John Sununu; Last ranking: 3)

The parallels between this race and Pennsylvania's 2006 Senate race continue. Despite predictions that the race is bound to tighten and that John Sununu is too good a politician to go down without a fight, polls are showing no sign of a competitive race - with the latest numbers finding Shaheen leading by 22%. But Republicans are hoping that the more accurate parallel for the Sununu-Shaheen race will be North Carolina's 2004 race, when Rep. Burr had stockpiled his cash to launch an ad blitzkrieg starting in September and had turned a consistent deficit into a narrow victory on Election Day. Now, it is Sununu who is saving up for a big push in the fall; as of the end of the second quarter, he has $5 million in the bank versus $2 million for Jeanne Shaheen. Will a late wave of advertisements be enough?

4. Colorado (Open; Last Ranking: 4 and toss-up)

For the first time since the November rankings, Colorado is not rated a "toss-up." As had been expected from the day the match-up between Mark Udall and Bob Schaffer was set up, the Democrat has pull ahead and is now consistently ahead by 9-10% in recent polls. A combination of factors explains why Udall finally jumped up to his first lead. First, this year's Democratic bent gives Democrats an edge in any open seat race that should have been tight. Second, Bob Schaffer had a bad few months, in particular over stories broken by the Denver Post about his association with convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Third, Udall fundraising advantage has allowed his campaign to spend more aggressively on ads. Udall outspent Shaffer 3:1 in the second quarter, and the DSCC jumped in with an attack ad of its own.

Meanwhile, we are starting to get a better idea of the campaign arguments Udall and Schaffer will use in the months ahead, and the first debate that opposed the two men in mid-July set some battle lines: Energy is already a hot topic in the campaign, with the two candidates exchanging barbs on the subject and Udall has devoted the entirety of one of his first ads to energy. Schaffer is determined to paint Udall as weak and unable to make much of a decision, while Udall is casting himself as a bipartisan with a commitment to consensus. It does look like Mark Udall is running as more of a moderate than his cousin Tom in New Mexico; beyond his insistence on bipartisanship, Mark voted for the FISA bill and Tom voted against it.

Toss-up (4 R, 1 D)

5. Alaska (Incumbent: Ted Stevens; Last Ranking: 5)

Ted Stevens is suffering from the corruption scandal that has ensnared him and the state's Republican Party and it is even affecting his fundraising abilities, as Mark Begich outraised the entrenched incumbent in the second quarter. Contrary to Rep. Young in the at-large House race, Stevens does not face a credible primary challenge, a relief for Democrats as the state's red leaning would kick in to help a Republican not plagued by ethical controversies.

Begich has been at worst tied with Stevens for months now. He went up on TV in early July, with one ad introducing himself and the other devoted to energy issues (with a joint pledge to develop alternative energies and to fight to "open ANWR"). Perhaps boosted by his increased media exposure and his advertisement efforts, Begich has jumped to a 9% lead in the latest poll, though we will naturally need confirmation of that number before drawing any conclusion.

The Democrat's efforts will be boosted by those of the Obama campaign, which has unexpectedly decided to make Alaska into a battleground state at the presidential level. Alaska polls have shown a tight presidential race, a sharp departure from past cycles in which Bush crushed his opponents by more than 20%. That means that contrary to Knowles in the 2004 Senate race, Begich will not have to swim counter-current and that he might benefit from Obama's organizational efforts.

6. Mississippi (Incumbent: Roger Wicker; Last Ranking: 8 )

Ronnie Musgrove and Roger Wicker were once roommates, but they are quickly becoming bitter rivals. Polls confirm that the race is a pure toss-up. The Republican incumbent has a clear advantage on the financial front ($3 million of cash on hand versus less than $800K for Musgrove at the end of the second quarter), but the DSCC has already rushed in to help Musgrove respond to Wicker's ads, demonstrating how seriously it took this contest. The DSCC's move triggered further controversy: Republicans are charging that the ads break campaign finance rules. Democrats answered by filing their own complaint about Wicker's fundraising.

It is true that Musgrove would have had a better chance had this special election been held in March, as it should have. Now, Wicker has more time to introduce himself to voters and blunt Musgrove's high name recognition; the GOP believes November's turnout will be more uniform than it was in MS-01 in May and that a more conservative electorate will give Wicker victory. But Democrats remain confident: First, there will be no party labels next to the candidates' names. Second, this is one down-the-ballot race in which the Obama candidacy could have a very clear effect: If there is a significant boost in black turnout, it could prove all Musgrove needs to pick-up this seat. The African-American vote is more than ever the key metric of this senatorial race, and one polls are unlikely to capture accurately.

7. Louisiana (Incumbent: Mary Landrieu; Last Ranking: 6)

Not much has changed in this race since the end of May. For one, Louisiana remains the one credible pick-up opportunity for Republicans, and as such will remain a high priority for the NRSC. Second, the two candidates remain on par financially, with Kennedy keeping up with Landrieu's fundraising for the second quarter in a row, though the incumbent retains a 2:1 advantage in the cash on hand department. As for polls, they show Landrieu ahead but the race has tightened a bit, with the Democrat ahead mid-single digits and under 50% in a number of recent polls. This is one state in which the presidential race is likely to help the Republican, as Louisiana is not a state Obama will do much of a dent. He might increase black turnout a bit, but the African-American vote's decrease since Katrina will be an advantage to Kennedy. One strong argument Democrats hold is statements made by Kennedy in 2004 when he was running as a Democrat for Senate.

8. Oregon (Incumbent: Gordon Smith; Last Ranking: 9 and lean retention)

Democrats have targeted Gordon Smith since the very first days of the cycle. But a disappointing recruitment process followed by primary difficulties for Jeff Merkley made Democrats anxious that they could be wasting an opportunity here. Since the May 20th primary, however, Merkley has grown stronger and is consistently polling within a few points of Smith. In fact, Merkley led in a poll for the first time just a few days ago. News that Merkley had outraised Smith in the second quarter hardened his position as a strong challenger.

Smith has been aware of the target he has on his back and has been preparing since the start of the cycle. Despite being distanced in second quarter fundraising, he still has a 8:1 in cash on hand and so much of Merkley's money was spent in the primary that his campaign is now in financial difficulty. Furthermore, Smith has been rapidly moving to the center, aware that he is at danger of becoming this cycle's Lincoln Chaffee: a Republican incumbent in a Democratic state who drowns in the blue tsunami, heightened by the probability that Obama scores a large victory in Oregon.

Smith's solution has been to throw his party label overboard and run as a consensus candidate ready to embrace both side. And he is going very far in that direction. Not only did he run an ad featuring a Democratic state representative and a state Senator endorsing him, but he followed that up with a spot embracing... Barack Obama, in a desperate-seeming effort to show his willingness to work across the aisle. This strategy does not come without risk: Smith, after all, is supporting John McCain and his positioning could confuse voters. And it will make Smith that much more vulnerable to Obama campaigning on Merkley's side (the Illinois Senator wasted no time issuing a statement reiterating his support for Merkley).

Lean Retention (2 R, 0 D)

9. Minnesota (Incumbent: Norm Coleman; Last Ranking: 7 and toss-up)

This is the first time in six Senate rankings that Minnesota is not rated as a toss-up. After a wild two months in which Al Franken was undermined by a succession of controversies, polls have clearly shifted away from the former comedian. Except for Rasmussen, which continues to show a toss-up race, other pollsters (including SUSA and Quinnipiac) find Coleman leading by double-digits.

Facing a shrewd incumbent with the reputation of a solid campaigner, Franken had no room for error. Yet, his campaign started tanking with revelations of Franken’s tax problems and with the controversy over his 2000 allegedly-pornographic essay in Playboy; this led a Democratic congresswoman state that she was not sure she could support Franken’s campaign and led Planned Parenthood to blast Franken's "misogynist remarks." Next came another firestorm over a rape joke Franken helped write on SNL in 1995. Now, the Coleman campaign is airing a personal attack ad blasting Franken for not paying taxes and writing "juicy porn."

Franken and Coleman's strategies are clear. The Democrat wants to make this a referendum about the incumbent and about the Republican Party. Franken denounces the "Bush-Coleman recession" and emphasizes Coleman's proximity to his party's leadership. The Republican wants to make this a referendum about what he believes is Franken's polarizing persona. Whoever manages to frame the debate best is likely to win the election - and both candidates have millions of dollars in the bank to define their opponent.

As if all of this agitation was not sufficient, there was the Jesse Ventura question mark. The former Governor only announced he would not run for Senate on July 14th, and his decision was a relief for Franken's campaign who had far more to lose from a Ventura candidacy. Now, Franken faces trouble within the DFL. Despite some intra-party rumblings back in May, Franken easily won the DFL's endorsement. Yet, a well-connected attorney recently announced she would run against Franken in the Democratic primary. She is unlikely to threaten Franken's nomination, but her late run could prevent the former comedian from turning his attention to Coleman.

10. North Carolina (Incumbent: Elizabeth Dole; Last Ranking: 10)

Minnesota concludes the list of the eight obvious Democratic targets. The DSCC has been looking for more seats to contest, and has made a clear choice that North Carolina has the most potential. Chuck Schumer has been including the state in the list of top targets for many weeks now and the DSCC has reserved up air time for up to $6 million in advertising starting mid-September. Think about that number for a minute: Democrats are committing to invest $6 million in their 9th target in a Republican-leaning state in a presidential year. What better sign of confidence could the DSCC send?

Yet, Republicans have reason to feel confident about this race as well. As of my last rankings, a
series of polls had just found Kay Hagan enjoying a stunning post-primary bounce to almost tie Elizabeth Dole. But the Republican incumbent then unleashed a big advertisement campaign. Combined with the fading of Hagan's primary victory bounce, Dole has recovered a low-double digit lead in all institutes, including SUSA, Rasmussen, PPP and Civitas.

But it is too late for Dole to make herself look strong. She still hovers around the 50% threshold of vulnerability, and the quick drop in her numbers in May shows that her support is weak. And Hagan will benefit from the Obama campaign's decision to contest North Carolina, particularly since the McCain campaign is doing little to counter. It will help Hagan overcome North Carolina red leaning and it will allow her to rely on Obama's turnout efforts. North Carolina might look less promising for Democrats than it did late May, but it retains unexpected potential.

Likely retention (5 R, 1 D)

11. Maine (Incumbent: Susan Collins; Last Ranking: 11)

Democrats have still been unable to turn Susan Collins into this cycle's Lincoln Chaffee, as hte incumbent is showing no sign that she is being dragged down by her party label. Rasmussen's polls that have found her under 50% for two months in a row, but in most other surveys, Collins continues to crush Allen (including by 25% in an early July poll). To be fair, Democrats should probably stop worrying so much about the candidacy of independent candidate Herbert Hoffman and start figuring out how to tie Susan Collins to President Bush. The DSCC's recent decision to reserve $5 million of air time in this very inexpensive media market proves that they are determined to find a solution. The ads the DSCC will be able to buy with that investment could be enough to uncover Collins' vulnerability... if she has any, which remains a question mark.

12. Kentucky (Incumbent: Mitch McConnell; Last Ranking: 14)

Mitch McConnell looked unexpectedly surprising back at the end of 2007 when a wave of polls showed him struggling against a number of high-profile Democrats. But after a number of them chose to forgo a run, it looked like McConnell might have dodged a bullet and it looked unlikely that Bruce Lunsford could put up much of a fight. But a number of polls released over the past two months have found this contest in single-digits. McConnell responded by releasing internal polls of his own but that was in a way of a sign of weakness. The latest poll the campaign released (in response to SUSA's survey) had him leading 50% to 39%; that is not the kind of poll an incumbent who is sure of winning blasts out, and he clearly only released it to squash speculation that he was in even worst shape.

It will take a lot of work for Lunsford (one of the most conservative Democrats running for Senate this year) to truly endanger McConnell. As the Republican Senate Minority Leader running in a state that is expected to go massively for McCain, McConnell has massive structural advantages, only one of which is his massive war chest: $9 million as of the end of the second quarter! Lundsford can self-fund his campaign, and he will need every penny he can invest.

13. Texas (Incumbent: John Cornyn; Last Ranking: 12)

This race's poll patterns is very similar to that of North Carolina. In May, a number of polls showed Senator Cornyn unexpectedly weak against state Senator Rick Noriega but the incumbent's number have recovered since then. Yet, it is clear that Cornyn is not as safe as was once believed and he commonly polls under 50%. So why is Texas ranked so much lower than North Carolina, and why is it in an entirely different category? For one, Kay Hagan 's financial position is much stronger than Rick Noriega's. Add to that the fact that North Carolina has become a battleground, and Hagan will be boosted by Obama's organization and turnout efforts -- whereas Noriega will be mostly on his own. And will the DSCC (which has invested millions in the Dole-Hagan contest) be willing to contribute anything to Noriega's efforts? Texas is a large state with expensive media markets, and it would take a large investment to make a difference.

14. New Jersey (Incumbent: Frank Lautenberg; Last ranking: 13)

The daily coups de theatre the New Jersey Senate race accustomed us to back in April have been replaced by relative calm. In the June 3rd primary, Sen. Lautenberg easily beat a last-minute challenge by Rep. Andrews and Republicans nominated former Rep. Frank Zimmer. Launtenberg has his weaknesses, starting with his age, but New Jersey does not give itself easily to Republicans. Polls have shown Launtenberg remains consistently under 50%, but Democrats have little to worry about for now as the state's voters are famously reluctant to embrace the Democratic Party until they first consider (and reject) the alterantive. If Kean was crushed by 10% two years ago, it is difficult to envision a path to victory for Zimmer.

15. Kansas (Incumbent: Roberts: Last ranking: 22)

This race jumped by 7 spots in this month's rankings, but that does not mean it has suddenly become vulnerable. It has simply appeared on our radar screen thanks to a series of polls in May and June that found Republican incumbent Pat Roberts up by smaller margins than he ought to have been against former Democratic Rep. Jim Slattery. And even though the latest poll finds Roberts regaining a commanding lead, but the media and Democratic netroots had already taken note of the potential for a competitive race. The Kansas press has been running stories about Slattery's unexpectedly competitive challenge (the ideal way for a lesser-known candidate to increase his profile) and Democratic activists have included Kansas in the list of states they are hoping to contest. Roberts himself appears to have taken notice and is leaving nothing to chance: He is already running his first advertisement, months before the general election.

16. Idaho (Open; Last Ranking: 15)

As expected, Idaho voters nominated Republican Lieutenant Governor Jim Risch and former Democratic representative Larry LaRocco. This is a rematch of the 2006 race for lieutenant governor: Risch prevailed 58% to 39% and odds voters will not behave any differently this year. Democratic hopes were pinned on Larry Craig remaining a focus of attention in Idaho and dragging his party down with him, but the noise surrounding Craig has died down. One storyline that could become problematic for Risch is his refusal to join LaRocco and independent candidate Rex Rammell in a series of ten debates. LaRocco and Rammell will now debate each other, and the Idaho press is not happy about Risch's refusal to participate.

17. Georgia (Incumbent: Chambliss; Last ranking: 20)

18. Oklahoma (Incumbent: Jim Inhofe; Last ranking: 17)

This race remains as much of a long shot for Democrats as any race the DSCC seems to be looking towards. Chuck Schumer's decision to send paid staffers to the state is the main reason the contest is not in the "safe" column.

19. Nebraska (Open; Last Ranking: 16)

Considering this race keeps falling down the rankings, it is hard to believe that Nebraska was once ranked fourth. Chuck Hagel's retirement created a short-lived opportunity for Democrats. Former Republican Governor Johanns soon jumped in the race and Democrats Bob Kerrey and Mike Fahey announced they would not run. Democrats nominated Scott Kleeb, a promising candidate who did surprisingly well in NE-03 in 2006. Yet, Nebraska remains very Republican and Johanns is as strong a candidate as the GOP could have run. The latest poll finds him leading 60% to 33%, confirming that it will take a miracle to get Kleeb to move to Washington.

20. South Dakota (Incumbent: Tim Johnson; Last Ranking: 19)

Safe

21. Tennessee (Incumbent: Lamar Alexander; Last ranking: 21)

22. Iowa (Incumbent: Harkin; Last ranking: 23)

23. Alabama (Incumbent: Sessions)

24. Michigan (Incumbent: Levin)

25. Montana (Incumbent: Baucus: Last ranking: 22)

At the beginning of the cycle, some Republicans were murmuring that Max Baucus would be a top target. That they managed to nominate an 85-year perennial candidate and former Democrat and former Green Party member Bob Kelleher just about sank any chances they had to make this race competitive.

26. Delaware (Incumbent: Biden)

Even if Barack Obama selects Joe Biden as his running-mate, Biden is likely to stay on the ballot. Democrats are overwhelmingly favored to keep the Governor's Mansion, and Biden's replacement would thus be a Democrat.

27. South Carolina (Incumbent: Graham)

It turns out that SC Democrats might have nominated… a Republican to take on Senator Lindsay Graham. Bob Conley has had a long relationship with the GOP and, while he claims to have left the party back in 2000 or 2001, he won a spot on the Republican Party’s Horry County executive committee in February 2007. While he pledged to be a Democrat when filing his candidacy papers and thus resigned from the GOP, this shouldn’t push the DSCC to attempt anything in SC even if Graham suffers the worst scandals over the next few months.

28. Massachusetts (Incumbent: Kerry; last ranking: 24)

Republicans were touting their candidate Jim Ogonowski, believing he could take advantage of John Kerry's potential weakness. But in one what one of the most stunning displays of Republican incompetence this cycle, Ogonowski fell 82 signatures short of qualifying for the primary ballot! Now, Kerry is facing little-known Jeff Beatty and is showing no sign of vulnerability.

29. Illinois (Incumbent: Durbin; Last ranking: 25)

Barack Obama will top the Democratic ticket, driving up turnout in his home-state. That should be enough to prevent any bad surprises for Durbin.

30. Wyoming (Incumbent: Barrasso)

31. West Virginia (Incumbent: Rockefeller)

32. Mississippi (Incumbent: Cochran)

33. Rhode Island (Incumbent: Reed)

34. Wyoming (Incumbent: Enzi)

35. Arkansas (Incumbent: Pryor)

May rankings: The map expands for Democrats

noreply@blogger.com (Taniel) — Thu, 22 May 2008 20:16:00 +0000

The presidential primaries are heading towards a not so climactic conclusion and so the time has come to focus some attention on the congressional races. I haven't updated the rankings since January and a lot has changed in the past 5 months, starting with the resolution of contested primaries in Oregon, Nebraska, North Carolina and probably Minnesota. Both parties have gone through final recruitment pushes, with the GOP playing a tragicomedic farce in New Jersey and suffering through one more round of failures in South Dakota and Iowa.

Meanwhile, a number of seats that had remained relatively quiet up to now have been seeing more action in the past few months. In Colorado, Bob Schaffer had been holding unexpectedly strong for most of 2007 but he was hit by a scandal over his ties with Jack Abramoff. In Oregon, the DSCC decided it had to soften Gordon Smith early to have a chance in November and started airing an attack ad against the incumbent. In Minnesota, it was Democrats who took a hit when it was revealed that Al Franken had trouble with taxes. And in Alaska, Mark Begich officially jumped in the Senate race -- though it had been many months that his candidacy had become clear.

But it is the lower ranked seats that created the most wave in the first half of 2008. It has become increasingly apparent that Democrats are successfully expanding the map, putting the dream of a filibuster-proof (however unlikely it still is) back on the table. As poll after poll show that seats like North Carolina, Texas and even Kansas -- not to mention Mississippi and Alaska, which were barely on the table back in the fall but which are not first-tier races on their own right -- are within Democrats' reach, the Senate picture is becoming increasingly nightmarish for the GOP. The NRSC is not in quite as big a financial hole as their House counterpart, but the Republicans have to be prepared to have their resources stretched thin. The DSCC is sending staffers to organize in Oklahoma, a clear sign that they are determined to put as many states in play as possible. For now, they are succeeding beyond even their expectations.

Check the January rankings here.

Outlook: Democratic pick-up a net 5-8 Senate seats, with a bigger gain more likely than a smaller one.

Prediction: Democrats pick-up a net 6 seats, for a 57-43 majority. This is the highest number of pick-ups I have predicted yet, though I think I am remaining on the safer side.

Likely Takeover (1 Republican seat, 0 Democratic seats)

1. Virginia (Open seat; Previous Ranking: 1)

If Democrat Mark Warner had not chosen to jump in this Senate race, he would surely have been near the top of both Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama's vice-presidential list. That he chose to run in Virginia instead demonstrates his confidence that he will be elected in November against fellow former Governor Jim Gilmore. Polls consistently show a double-digit lead for Warner, and given how many other seats the NRSC must defend it is unlikely they will invest anything to defend their chances here.

Lean Takeover (2 R, 0 D)

2. New Mexico (Open; Previous ranking: 2)

The Republican primary between Representatives Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce is getting increasingly aggressive, with two high-profile politicians facing the end of their political careers, in a primary no less. The Club for Growth is now getting involved on behalf of Steve Pearce. Meanwhile, Tom Udall is building his general election campaign and looking increasingly formidable in polls. He is also amassing a considerable financial advantage -- he has three times as much cash-on-hand than his opponents combined -- and is using the funds to already air his first ads re-introducing himself to all voters. New Mexico is as closely divided a state as there is in the country; but in a year that structurally favors Democrats, any Democratic nominee starts with a clear generic advantage -- even more so when he is as popular as Udall.

3. New Hampshire (Incumbent: John Sununu; Previous ranking: 3)

After a slight down-tick in polls at the end of 2007 -- perhaps because of her husband's heavily publicized comments about Obama's past drug use -- Jeanne Shaheen has reclaimed a convincing lead against Senator Sununu. How early the challenger jumped to a clear lead and how stable that lead has been since then confirms that this race is looking to be the 2006 Santorum-Casey election. This is a race in which the Democrats' success in expanding the map could prove critical, as it is unlikely that the NRSC will have a dime to spend to help a badly trailing Sununu if states like North Carolina, Texas or Mississippi look to be in any way endangered.

Toss-up (4 R, 1 D)

4. Colorado (Open; Last Ranking: 4)

In the first seat to open up this cycle, Colorado's Senate race was quiet for most of 2007 as both parties settled on their nominees relatively early. Expectations favored Democrat Mark Udall given past trends in the state, but Republican Bob Schaffer held on, as poll after poll found Colorado to be a toss-up. But the past few months have been rough for Schaffer. First, the Denver Post revealed that Schaffer was associated with convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff and that a 1999 trip to the Marinas Island that was meant to examine labor conditions was arranged by Abramoff; this controversy gained attention and an independent group chose to air an ad in the Colorado Springs region to soften up Schaffer's popularity.

Second, the Schaffer campaign committed a major gaffe mid-May when his campaign substituted a picture of Colorado's Pikes Peak by Alaska's Mount McKinley in an ad that was meant to emphasize Schaffer's Colorado roots. While this is certainly a silly controversy, the reason Schaffer was running this ad in the first place was that there were questions about his attachment to Colorado and this only reinforces doubts people might be having about him. The DSCC jumped on the opportunity to air an ad also attacking Schaffer for his connections to Abramoff -- confirming that this will haunt the Colorado Republican for many months to come.

The only poll taken since these ads started running showed Udall slightly expanding his lead but he is ahead only 6%, confirming that Schaffer is a much stronger candidate -- and is holding on despite controversies -- much more strongly than people envisioned a few months ago. This has been a surprising reality Democrats have been dealing with for a few months and while Udall would probably prevail if the election was held today the race is much too close for comfort.

5. Alaska (Incumbent: Ted Stevens; Last Ranking: 8)

This race has been creeping up the rankings for months now. Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich officially declared his candidacy at the end of April, in one of the DSCC's best recruitment coups of this cycle. Democrats have had heartbreaks in Alaska over the past few years, but the state GOP is reaching rock bottom because of a corruption investigation that has engulfed most Republican figures -- including Stevens and Rep. Young. Both of these incumbents are in grave danger of losing their seat. Stevens might be the longest-serving Republican in the Senate, but Begich is actually leading by 5 percent in the latest poll of the race. However, this remains Alaska and Stevens is as formidable a political force as it gets so this race will remain tight to the end.

6. Louisiana (Incumbent: Mary Landrieu; Last Ranking: 5)

With the GOP's failure to recruit a credible candidate in South Dakota and Iowa and with the farce played by New Jersey Republicans (see below), Louisiana is more than ever the Republicans' only opportunity for a Senate pick-up come November. The size of the GOP's Senate losses will likely depend on whether they can cushion their fall with a pick-up here. Louisiana has been trending Republican in recent cycles but Mary Landrieu has been preparing for a tight race for years now. Predictably, as this is the main -- only? -- seat in which they will go on the offense, Republicans will concentrate a lot of their fire power and resources in defeating Landrieu, as was confirmed by the fact that Republican candidate John Kennedy outraised the incumbent in the year's first quarter.

But Democrats are certainly not panicking, as two polls in the past two months show Landrieu up double-digits and at or above 50% and found Landrieu with a strong favorability rating. Also, Don Cazayoux's victory in LA-06's special election bolsters the Democrats' case that their party is much stronger than predicted in this state; but Republicans could also point to this special election to argue that the Louisiana environment is less pro-Democrat than the national one, as Cazayoux's win against a flawed opponent was much tighter than Travis Childers's victory against a better candidate and in a more Republican district (MS-01) ten days later. Republicans are determined enough to make this race competitive that the race will likely tighten considerably in the coming months.

7. Minnesota (Incumbent: Norm Coleman; Last Ranking: 6)

The first three months over the year looked very good for Democrat Al Franken. His main opponent for the Democratic nomination, Mike Ciresi, abruptly withdrew from the race, essentially handing the DFL's nod to Franken and allowing the comedian to focus his attention on Senator Coleman, who remains a savvy and fairly popular politician. Enjoying a wave of good press, as the media never ceased being stunned that an actor-comedian could wage a serious political campaign, Franken jumped to a lead against Coleman in numerous polls throughout February and early March. For an incumbent to not only be under 50% but to be trailing this far ahead of Election Day is a sign of great vulnerability.

Yet, it was Franken's turn to weaken in the months that ensued, as it was revealed that Franken had to pay $70,000 in back taxes and penalties to 17 states. The press started piling on, raising questions about Franken's sense of business and his competence, and a SUSA poll found that a majority of Minnesota voters said that Franken should withdraw and that these revelations made them less likely to support him. Election Day is 6 months from now, and Franken will have time to change the topic of conversation, but all polls in the past few months show Coleman has regained a lead and generally comes in above 50%. And Republicans will be sure to use the issue in the fall campaign.

8. Mississippi (Incumbent: Roger Wicker; Last Ranking: 9)

At the time of my previous rankings, we did not yet know whether Mississippi's election would be held in March or in November, as Republicans insisted that they could wait until the fall to hold the special election, despite the law's pretty obvious phrasing to the contrary. In mid-January, a judge ruled in favor of the Democratic Attorney General, setting up a March election, only to be overruled two weeks later by the state Supreme Court. This was a huge relief for Republicans, as it means that they would not have to worry about a low-turnout election in which Democrats would surely be more motivated (as we saw with MS-01, they would indeed have been so) and newly-appointed Wicker will have the advantage of incumbency.

Yet, Democrats have a lot going for them as well, and this judicial decision is the only good news the GOP got from Mississippi over the past few months. First, Democrats managed to unify behind one candidate, former Governor Ronnie Musgrove. Since this is a special election with no primary, it was not necessarily obvious that they would be able to do so and they had to wait until mid-February to convince former Rep. Snows to not attempt a run. Second, Mississippi Republicans are in as bad a shape as the national party. Travis Childers' picked-up MS-01 on May 13th, a district that Bush had carried with 62% and confirming that there is a road to victory for Musgrove -- a road that some Democrats believe will be only strengthened by Obama's presence on the ticket, which will bolster black turnout. Third, the November election will be a special election which in this state means that the partisan affiliation of both candidates will not be written on the ballot. In a state as conservative as Mississippi, that is a great asset for any Democratic candidate, one that helped Childers on May 13th and that will help Musgrove in the fall.

Fourth, Musgrove should almost be considered the incumbent in the race; he is better known than his adversary and he is fairly popular, while Wicker remains rather unknown, which could give the Democrat some of the incumbency advantage. Finally, polls are confirming that this race will be tight, with the latest survey showing Musgrove leading by 8%. It is a partisan poll released by the DSCC, so take it with a grain of salt, but other non-partisan polls of the Musgrove-Wicker showdown confirm that it is highly competitive.

Lean Retention (2 R, 0 D)

9. Oregon (Incumbent: Gordon Smith; Last Ranking: 7)

The DSCC got its wish on May 20th when House speaker Jeff Merkley won the Democratic nomination in a very tight race against Steve Novick. Despite there being little evidence that Merkley would fare better than Novick in the fall, Chuck Schumer chose to bank on Merkley, ran ads on his behalf and organized phone-banks. Now, Democrats can concentrate on the general election in what will be a tough race. Gordon Smith is a vulnerable incumbent, but Democrats knows they need to soften him up further if they want Merkley (who was recruited only after a series of first-tier candidates declined to run) to have a shot, which is why the DSCC is already airing ads against the Republican Senator Gordon Smith. Polls had been kind to the incumbent until a mid-May Rasmussen poll found a three point race with Smith under the 50% threshold.

10. North Carolina (Incumbent: Elizabeth Dole; Last Ranking: 11)

This race only progresses by one ranking spot, but it is without question the biggest surprise of the past few months -- and the only one that has crossed the all-important limit separating "Lean retention" from "Likely retention" seats. A series of refusals this fall by potentially top-tier candidates had left Democrats convinced that they would not beat Elizabeth Dole this year, though some polls suggested that both state Senator Kay Hagan and investment banker Jim Neal could keep the race interesting. On May 6th, state Democrats gave an overwhelming victory to Hagan, making her their candidate against the freshman Senator. Ever since then, a series of polls has shown Hagan enjoying a post-primary bounce; as her name recognition increased and as she shared the limelight of the high-profile Democratic primary, she was unexpectedly propelled into a toss-up with Dole, leading her in a much-discussed Rasmussen poll and narrowly trailing in others. As North Carolina looks like it will be a battleground state at the presidential level, Hagan will also benefit from an increase in Democratic organizing in the state.

Likely retention (5 R, 1 D)

11. Maine (Incumbent: Susan Collins; Last Ranking: 8)

The race between popular Republican Senator Collins and challenger Rep. Tom Allen has been disappointing Democrats since last fall. Despite Allen's high name recognition and the Northeast's drifting towards the Democratic Party (as former Senator Chaffee can attest to), polls showed that Collins was not vulnerable, riding high above 50% and crushing her opponent. How quiet the race is remaining is a further victory for Collins, who wants to keep the race as discreet as possible to minimize voters' partisan reflexes and not fall victim to her party's unpopularity. The latest poll from the race, released last week by Rasmussen, shows the margin between the two candidates reduced to 10%, the smallest it has ever been in any public polling -- good but rare news for Allen. Given that the state is relatively inexpensive, the DSCC might push Collins and try to soften her no matter how competitive the race looks in the coming weeks, but there is no question that the race is taking a back seat to other races that are looking increasingly promising.

12. Texas (Incumbent: John Cornyn; Last Ranking: 14)

Along with North Carolina, Texas is the second unexpectedly-rising Republican-held seat. Senator Jon Cornyn has never been particularly popular, but state Senator Rick Noriega did not necessarily seem like the candidate who could topple the Republican incumbent in a state that has solidly anchored itself to the GOP column in the past decade. But May came, and two polls in one week showed Cornyn with only a 4% lead over his challenger. Noriega will benefit from a lot of fundraising help from the netroots, and he will need every penny to keep this race competitive as it is not easy for a challenger to get known in a state as large -- and as Republican -- as this one. Nonetheless, Democrats are delighted to be expanding the map to the Lone Star State and we will keep a close eye on whether the dual May polls were just a fluke or the sign of real trouble for Cornyn.

13. New Jersey (Incumbent: Frank Lautenberg; Last ranking: 18)

Paradoxically enough for a seat ranked this low, New Jersey's Senate race is the contest that made the most news in the past few months. Since my last rankings -- and in fact in an even more compressed amount of time, as all these events happened between mid-March and mid-April -- a series of events changed this race's outlook: (1) The candidate Republicans were touting unexpectedly dropped out for health reasons, leaving the GOP with no credible candidate. (2) The GOP was excited to recruit businessman Andrew Unanu, though it did not take long for him to be discredited. (3) Rep. Andrews, a Democrat, annouced he would challenge Senator Launtenberg in the June 3rd primary. (4) Two days later -- and three days before the filing deadline -- the GOP found a strong candidate, businessman John Crowley, leading to Unanu's withdrawal from the race. (5) Barely two more days passed and Crowley dropped out of the race, leading to Unanu's jumping back in. (6) After the filing deadline, Unanu withdrew once more, ceding his spot on the ballot to former Rep. Richard Zimmer.

There will therefore be two contested primaries on the ballot on June 3rd. The GOP will choose between state Senator Pennacchio, Zimmer and professor Murray Sabrin. Zimmer would probably be the Republicans' strongest choice, though it has been a while he has been out of politics: He lost a hotly contested Senate race in 1996 against Torricelli and lost a House race in 2000 by 651 votes. The Democratic primary, meanwhile, is centered on the question of Lautenberg age -- one that the Republican candidate will use against the incumbent if he survives Andrews' challenge. Odds are that he will, and do so convincingly, for the simple reason that Andrews declared his candidacy months to late for it to be effective. A primary challenge in a state as expensive as New Jersey is always difficult, but leaving yourself 3 months is a strange sort of political suicide.

14. Kentucky (Incumbent: Mitch McConnell; Last Ranking: 12)

At the end of 2007, it looked like Kentucky was the sleeper race of the 2008 cycle. Mitch McConnell looked surprisingly weak against potential Democratic opponents. But the Senate Minority Leader immediately decided to start airing advertisement, and Attorney General Stumbo and Treasurer Crit Luallen announced that they would not run against the Senate Minority Leader. That left the Democratic nomination in the hands of Iraq War veteran Andrew Horne, but even he called it quits in early 2008. On May 20th, the Democratic nomination was won by Bruce Lunsford, a Democrat who lost his party's gubernatorial nomination in 2003 and 2007. He endorsed Republican Ernie Fletcher in 2003 after the primary, and has donated to McConnell's senatorial campaign. This race is certainly not what it used to be for Democrats, even if the jury is still out on how successfully McConnell addressed his vulnerabilities.

15. Idaho (Open; Last Ranking: 15)

We were all breathlessly waiting to see if Larry Craig would pull any last minute stump to try to hold on to his Senate seat. Would he suddenly change his mind about retiring just as he changed his mind about resigning back in September? The filing deadline passed mid-March without Craig filing for reelection, confirming that the general election will feature a new Republican nominee, most probably Lieutenant Governor Jim Risch. The Democratic nominee is almost certain to be former Representative Larry LaRocco. This would be a rematch of the 2006 race for lieutenant governor, which Risch won 58% to 39%. LaRocco insists that times are different, but the state's Republican roots will make it difficult for Democrats to contest the seat, though the DSCC will push to test whether Craig's shadow is still haunting the state GOP. For now, Risch is attracting criticism from local papers for refusing to participate in live debates televised on public TV.

16. Nebraska (Open; Last Ranking: 16)

Here is another race that Democrats had much higher hopes about in the fall of 2007. As former Governor and Senator Bob Kerrey and Omaha mayor Mike Fahey announced they would not run for the seat left open by Chuck Hagel, this seat plunged in the rankings. Both parties held their primaries on May 13th, setting up a general election between former Governor Mike Johanns and Democrat Scott Kleeb, a favorite of the netroots. The first poll of the race shows Johanns leading comfortably, though not overwhelmingly; however much some sites and online networks concentrate on this race, it will be very tough for Kleeb to overcome the state's deep Republican roots and the popularity and name recognition of his opponent.

17. Oklahoma (Incumbent: Jim Inhofe; Last ranking: 19)

Inhofe might not be the most popular of incumbents, and Democratic candidate state Senator Andrew Rice might be a grassroots darling, but this remains deeply red Oklahoma and an entrenched Republican. The reason I am moving this race up and out of the "almost safe" category for the first time is that the DSCC seems committed to testing Inhofe. They are sending paid staffers to the state -- in a clear vindication of Dean's 50-state strategy -- and they will probably get financial help from environmental groups who want Inhofe's defeat, given that the Senator is one of Congress' most vocal skeptics of global warming.

Almost Safe

All these states could become competitive under the right set of circumstances. But recruiting for now has not gotten the opposition party as far as they would like – and even if a major candidate were to emerge, the incumbent would likely need a “macaca”-like moment to end up losing the election. Don’t hold your breath, but something could happen.

17. Kansas (Incumbent: Roberts: Last ranking: 22)

The Senate picture is so worrisome for the GOP that it merits my first description of the Kansas Senate race. Senator Roberts was not believed to be facing any sort of threat despite Chuck Schumer's hopes that Governor Sibelius might jump in the race. The candidacy of former representative Jim Slattery satisfied Democrats that they would at least have a viable candidate if Roberts were to melt down. But the first poll of the race suggests that imagining this race to be interesting isn't as insane a proposition as it would have seemed to us just las month.

19. South Dakota (Incumbent: Tim Johnson; Last Ranking: 13)

Just 9 months ago, South Dakota was included in any list of vulnerable Senate seats. Now, it has plunged to 19th position, behind even Kansas. That reflects the dual factors of (1) Tim Johnson choosing to run again and appearing healthy and (2) the GOP failing to recruit a series of candidates that they tried to pressure into running. The Republican candidate will be Joel Dykstra, the assistant Majority Leader in the state House. The most recent Rasmussen poll shows Johnson crushing Dykstra 63% to 28%, not the type of numbers the GOP was hoping for here.

20. Georgia (Incumbent: Chambliss; Last ranking: 24)

21. Tennessee (Incumbent: Lamar Alexander; Last ranking: 20)

22. Montana (Incumbent: Baucus: Last ranking: 21)

23. Iowa (Incumbent: Harkin; Last ranking: 17)

It is incredible that Republicans failed to recruit even a second-tier candidate in this seat given that Harkin has never had a comfortable re-election race in his Senate career. Republican hopes rested on ultra-conservative Rep. King who squashed talk of a potential run in March.

Safe

Unless a Craig-like scandal erupts for incumbents in these states, don't expect these seats to switch. These seats are listed in some very loose order of potential and marginal vulnerability.

24. Massachusetts (Incumbent: Kerry)

25. Alabama (Incumbent: Sessions)

26. Illinois (Incumbent: Durbin)

27. Delaware (Incumbent: Biden)

28. South Carolina (Incumbent: Graham)

29. Wyoming (Incumbent: Barrasso)

30. West Virginia (Incumbent: Rockefeller)

31. Michigan (Incumbent: Levin)

32. Mississippi (Incumbent: Cochran)

33. Rhode Island (Incumbent: Reed)

34. Wyoming (Incumbent: Enzi)

After some speculation that Enzi might be eying retirement (not that even an open seat would have been that competitive in Wyoming), he announced in May that he would be seeking re-election.

35. Arkansas (Incumbent: Pryor; Last Ranking: 21)

A Democratic Senator in Arkansas is now the safest incumbent for the Republicans failed to recruit any candidate in a particularly pathetic display of incompetence; this was after all a seat that was talked about as potentially vulnerable since Pryor is a freshman Democrat from a Southern state.

January rankings: GOP prospects improve in a few seats

noreply@blogger.com (Taniel) — Mon, 14 Jan 2008 07:05:00 +0000

It has been more than two months since my last Senate rankings. With the presidential primaries on every one's mind, congressional races are looking less urgent, not to mention that there was just very little news coming out of down-the-ballot contests during the holiday period. But a lot has changed since the beginning of November -- starting with the number of Senate elections that will be decided in 2008. Trent Lott's shocking decision to prioritize lobbying over holding the position he was elected to a year before has added a 35th race to our rankings, and has expanded the map for Democrats with an unexpected opportunity.

But Republican prospects are looking up outside of Mississippi. After months of good news for Democrats, the GOP has pushed back and improved its situation in several races, starting with Kentucky and Nebraska where a series of Democratic recruitment failures have diminished the party's chances of shocking Republicans in red territory. Dems still have hope that Andrew Horne and Scott Kleeb could make things competitive there, but both races look like long-shots right now. Meanwhile, polls in Colorado show that the conventional wisdom that the open seat would be an easy Democratic pick-up might have been a bit too hasty, while Republicans are looking stronger than they did three months ago in Maine and even in New Hampshire.

Yet, Democrats are still in the driver's seat of next year's elections. Eleven of the twelve most vulnerable seats are held by Republicans -- and it will be very hard for the GOP to save Virginia and New Mexico. Meanwhile, Democrats have to be happy with the way things are shaping up in Alaska, a state that was in few people's radar screens at the start of the cycle but where polls are now shaping entrenched but ethically challenged Senator Stevens trailing. Over the next few weeks, the recruitment process will come to a close, we will know what to expect in the Mississippi special election and get a feel of how things are shaping up in races where news has been rather slow.

Check the November rankings here.

Outlook: Democratic pick-up 4-5 Senate seats.

Prediction: Democrats pick-up a net 5 seats, for a 56-44 majority.

Likely Takeover (1 Republican seat, 0 Democratic seats)

1. Virginia (Open seat; Previous Ranking: 1)

There is no indication that the race is tightening in Virginia. In fact, most of the news that has come out of the state has revealed dissensions in the Republican camp, as former Governor Gilmore cannot even rally his party behind him. There is nearly continuous talk of an intra-party challenge to Gilmore, and meanwhile Democrat Mark Warner is continuing to amass the necessary money. The latest poll of the race out at the beginning of January has Warner holding on to his double-digit lead. If the race is going to get more competitive, expect things to start shifting next fall in case Virginia comes back to his conservative roots.

Lean Takeover (2 Republican Seats, 0 Democratic Seats)

2. New Mexico (Open; Previous ranking: 4)

A lot has changed in New Mexico since my last rankings. At that time, Democrat Tom Udall had not yet reversed his decision to not run for this open seat though rumors were starting to circulate that he was looking to get back in. He did just that shortly thereafter and has since then become the presumptive nominee of his party as his main rival, Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez, withdrew from the race.

The Republicans will have to decide between two congressmen of their own, Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce. That in itself should not hurt their chances as competitive primaries often serve as a bounce for a party (unless it becomes too nasty). But Udall nonetheless starts with an edge. Most polls show him to have a clear edge to start out the race -- and that is exactly the reason the DSCC was so intent on convincing him to get in the race. But New Mexico remains a very competitive state at the federal level, and the race could tighten up considerably depending on the national mood of the electorate.

3. New Hampshire (Incumbent: John Sununu; Previous ranking: 2)

The Shaheen that made the most news since my last rankings is not the Senate candidate but her husband Bill who was Clinton's co-chair in New Hampshire but had to resign from his position after he opened the subject of Obama's drug-use and suggested that the GOP will ask whether he had dealt any of it. This episode will probably be forgotten by next year but Jeanne Shaheen already had some ill-will among some Democratic activists in the state, and there is no way to know for now if this could significantly dampen the base's enthusiasm.

This incident could also be the reason that the latest ARG survey of the race showed a surge by Senator Sununu who suddenly took a lead against Shaheen, whereas poll after poll throughout the summer and fall had suggested that Shaheen was up by a big margin. This will obviously require confirmation by other polls, but odds are the race will get back to equilibrium for a few more months as soon as the memory of the drug episode fades. But it serves as a reminder that Sununu is a good enough of a politician to use Shaheen's vulnerabilities and pounce his way to victory.

Toss-up (4 R, 1 D)

4. Colorado (Open; Last Ranking: 3)

This is the first time Colorado has not been ranked "Lean take-over." The conventional wisdom of the race was long that Democrats would hold an advantage in an open-seat scenario given their successes in the past two cycles in this state, all of them occurring in open-seat scenarios (two House seats, one Senate seat and the governorship). To make matters worse for the GOP, they struggled to find a candidate and they ended up settling on former Rep. Shaffer who had lost the 2004 Senate primary; Democrats were confident that Rep. Udall was a much stronger candidate and that he would not struggle to much to pick-up the seat.

But the scenario is playing out quite differently. Shaffer has managed to be taken seriously and the NRSC is no longer writing the seat off -- which is already a huge disappointment for Democrats. Furthermore, all polls taken since the late summer show that the race is for now in a toss-up; the consistent tightness of all surveys of the race has to be taken into account and at this moment this race has to be ranked a toss-up. That said, Udall's position remains a bit stronger -- both because of the way recent CO elections have shaped-up and because of the fact that he is in the House now and is a popular and well-known figure in the state. And this is the type of race that the NRSC will abandon quickly if things get tough and they have other seats to defend. We shall keep an eye on any movement in the coming months.

5. Louisiana (Incumbent: Mary Landrieu; Last Ranking: 6)

Louisiana has long been the only Democratic-held seat the GOP had any chance of picking up, and Republicans finally got Treasurer John Kennedy to jump in the race in late November. Kennedy -- who ran as a Democrat in 2004 -- starts with some good statewide recognition, and this race looks like it might emerge as one of the tightest of the country. Louisiana has been trending Republican for years now, and Katrina accelerated that process; in November, the GOP picked-up the governorship in triumphant manner, and Landrieu has never been a particularly towering incumbent to begin with.

Democrats also have reason to hope: The same day Jindal was elected Governor, Mitch Landrieu -- Mary's brother -- won a new term as Lieutenant Governor; a few weeks later, Democrats managed to retain both houses of the Louisiana legislature, though they did lose a lot of seats; and Landrieu is starting with an impressive war chest. There have been two polls released for now, and they confirm that this race is starting as a toss-up: The first, (an independent poll) shows the race very tight with Landrieu 4 points ahead, while an internal poll for Kennedy has him up by 7%.

6. Minnesota (Incumbent: Norm Coleman; Last Ranking: 6)

Most media stories of the race concentrate on Al Franken's candidacy and his transition from comic to politician. And even Franken's doubters have to concede that he is looking like a very serious contender. The fourth quarter numbers came out last week and show that Franken has out-raised Senator Coleman for the third quarter in a row -- but Coleman has a 2:1 cash-on-hand advantage. But with all the national press Franken is getting, it's easy to forget that Mike Ciresi is in the race for the Democratic nomination as well, and he has started running ads before Franken. Both candidates look like they could be strong against Coleman despite being derided as second-tier at the beginning of the cycle; the most recent poll was released 2 months ago and has Coleman stuck in a statistical tie against both men.

7. Oregon (Incumbent: Gordon Smith; Last Ranking: 7)

The Democratic primary is going strong between House Speaker Jeff Merkley and Steve Novick, who are battling to show their progressive credentials. Merkley got some good news recently by scoring the endorsement of the Oregon AFL-CIO, though Novick recently used the Iowa caucuses to compare Merkley to Hillary Clinton as a force of the establishment. Meanwhile, Senator Gordon Smith is working hard to build a moderate reputation. He was among the first to break with his party over the Iraq War; since then, he has introduced a bill to extend domestic partnerships to federal employees - not the typical Republican move. The first and only public poll of the campaign was released in mid-November and has Smith leading but under 50%-- so you can be sure the DSCC will invest heavily in this race.

Lean Retention (2 R, 0 D)

8. Alaska (Incumbent: Ted Stevens; Last Ranking: 9)

It's hard to believe that Alaska's Senate seat could soon enter the top-tier, but with yet another (independent) poll showing long-time Republican incumbent Ted Stevens trailing his challenger, we have to recognize that Stevens is truly vulnerable. This is not that surprising on paper given the scope of the FBI investigation against Stevens and many of the state's Republican figures; but Alaska has not been kind to Democrats of late and Stevens is a very entrenched incumbent.

Democrats appear to be getting their wish here candidate-wise. Anchorage Mayor Begich has not yet announced he is running, but he had long implied that he would not start a campaign before the spring. He had also said, however, that he would say he is not running by the end of 2007 to allow another Democrat to mount a strong campaign. And since we have not heard anything from him yet, it would seem to imply that Begich is preparing a run and could give Stevens the fight of his political life. Definitely not the place we were expecting to see a competitive election at the start of this cycle, but this could shape out to be one of the hottest races of the cycle.

9. Mississippi (Incumbent: Roger Wicker; Last Ranking: N/A)

This race is the huge shocker of the cycle. It did not even exist at the time of my last rankings -- and then Trent Lott decided that he would make more money in the private sector and proceeded to resign before the end of 2007 to escape the restrictions of the new lobbying law. Governor Barbour proceeded to appoint Rep. Roger Wicker to take Lott's seat, and Wicker will now have to win a race of his own right in a special election to get the right to finish Lott's term until 2012. Democrats had high hope for the seat at the beginning, and most of them rested on the candidacy of former Attorney General Mike Moore, a very popular figure in the state. But Moore recently announced he would not run, depriving Democrats of their strongest contender. Since then, two Dems have jumped into the race -- former Governor Ronnie Musgrove who is considered to be a strong candidate as well, and former Rep. Ronnie Snows. The problem with this is that -- because it is a special election -- this contest does not have a primary but a runoff-system. All candidates from any party will be on the same ballot and the top two will go to a runoff if no one gets 50%. In other words, the division of the Democratic vote makes it impossible for either Snows or Musgrove to win this in the first round and the party will have to find a way to keep Wicker under 50% in that first voting.

The question that could decide how competitive the race will be is the special election's timing. Will it occur on November 4th, as Barbour wants? Or within 90 days, as the law seems to require? Attorney General Jim Hood has now dragged Governor Barbour to court to force him to organize an election by the end of March, and the case should press forward fast in the first few weeks. That would naturally give more hope to Dems as Wicker would have less time to develop incumbency advantage and as the DSCC would play big in the state since it would not have anything else to focus on. And the Democrats clearly have the strength to be competitive here. There have been two polls released for now, one with Wicker up Musgrove by 7% and one with Musgrove up Wicker by 12%. The former poll undersampled black voters (said the pollster himself), so Musgrove clearly has what it takes to make this a top-tier race. We will know more about the dynamics of the race once we know

Likely retention (6 R, 1 D)

10. Maine (Incumbent: Susan Collins; Last Ranking: 8)

Rep. Tom Allen was touted as one of the DSCC's top recruits, but Democrats better figure out a way to knock Susan Collins off her pedestal soon. A series of polls released in October and November had Collins crushing Allen with almost no sign of vulnerability. Things will likely tighten as months go by, as Maine is a small state that would not cost much the DSCC to play in -- and it likely will do so given that it at least has a top-tier candidate in the race. One problem Democrats will face here is that the Iraq War seems to be fading as a campaign issue; at least it is no longer a topic Democrats are talking about on the trail the way they did in 2006, and the war does not seem to be weighing down moderate Republicans like it did in 2006. And that, of course, was the main factor that sank Chafee in Rhode Island -- the model Democrats were looking to use to pick-up Maine as well.

11. North Carolina (Incumbent: Elizabeth Dole; Last Ranking: 11)

This race is being polled quite regularly because of PPP's commitment to extensive North Carolina surveys. And while most polls show Elizabeth Dole more vulnerable than she would like to be -- and often under 50% -- they underscore more than anything how much potential Democrats would have had here had they convinced a top-tier or second-tier Democrat to jump in the race. Instead, they are running state Senator Kay Hagan and investment banker Jim Neal. Time is passing fast for anyone else to jump in the race and there has been very little recruitment talk here since the last rankings in November. Yet, one development could perhaps boost the prospects of a Democratic pick-up here: the DSCC wants to expand the map to races that are not competitive yet. And with its recruitment troubles in Kentucky and in Nebraska, Schumer could realize that at least he already has candidates here. And there is no question that Hagan and Neal are serious enough that both could make this into a race. But they will need outside help.

12. Kentucky (Incumbent: Mitch McConnell; Last Ranking: 10)

Kentucky is shaping got to be the Democrats' major disappointment. In early November, it seemed poised to break in the top-tier of Senate races as McConnell was polling some very weak numbers against potential Democratic opponents that were looking very interested in the seat. Since then, not only have Attorney General Stumbo and Treasurer Crit Luallen announced that they would not run against the Senate Minority Leader, but McConnell has run weeks worth of ads boosting his image in a political vacuum. The evidence is mixed as to how much that has helped McConnell, but it is clear that Democrats have to get their act together as quickly as possible to have any chance to get this race on the radar screen. Iraq War veteran and attorney Andrew Horne has jumped in the race for Democrats -- and polls back in the fall showed him within striking distance if he played his cards right. How this race unfolds largely depends on the DSCC at this point and how much they are willing to go after McConnell and force him to play defense.

13. South Dakota (Incumbent: Tim Johnson; Last Ranking: 13)

A few more months have gone by without any indication that Tim Johnson might be considering retirement despite his health condition; and without any indication either that the Republicans are going to be able to recruit a strong candidate to run against him. In early November, there was some speculation that Gov. Rounds was being recruited by the NRSC, but Rounds denied that vehemently and nothing has come from that since then. The race was meant to be one of only two Democratic seats that Republicans would contest but it is not looking competitive at all as we head into 2008. Nevertheless, Johnson could be hurt dramatically by a senior moment on the trail or if he shows the extent of his health's deterioration -- which is why we are keeping the race up here.

14. Texas (Incumbent: John Cornyn; Last Ranking: 14)

Democrats have been touting a poll showing a weak approval rating and re-elect numbers for Cornyn, but fact is that the situation is very similar to North Carolina. Democratic challenger Noriega will not defeat the incumbent without outside help, so it depends on how much the DSCC is willing to help. At least the race has a solid challenger, which could motivate Schumer to invest in this race as opposed to spending more time trying to recruit in other contests as time is running down to find new candidates.

15. Idaho (Open; Last Ranking: 15)

Larry Craig is continuing to make life difficult for Idaho Republicans. The state party is hoping that the incumbent will just quietly go away, but Craig is continuing to dominate state headlines as he has now appealed a lower-courts decision to not let him withdraw his guilty plea. Of course, Craig has indicated he is not running for re-election and there is no indication for now to think he might be revisiting his decision; this scandal will likely be long resolved by November, and the state's conservative leanings should carry Lieutenant Governor Risch across the finish line against Democrat LaRocco.

16. Nebraska (Open; Last Ranking: 13)

Nebraska is Democrats' other big disappointment in this month's rankings. This race has dropped from 4th to 13th and then straight from 13th to 16th as first Bob Kerrey and then Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey have declined to run for the seat left open by Chuck Hagel. On the other side of the aisle, Republicans have recruited former Governor Johanns to carry their banner -- the strongest candidate they could have found. Democrats are now hoping to convince Scott Kleeb, their nominee for NE-03 in 2006, to run for the Senate seat. Kleeb has not yet declared, though recent reports indicate that he might be looking to jump in. Kleeb ran in one of the reddest districts in the country in 2006 and did more than well which is fueling Democratic hopes that he could pull off a miracle here; but Kleeb would have to perform even better than 2006 in a presidential year, at the statewide level and against a popular figure like Johanns.

Almost Safe

All these states could become competitive under the right set of circumstances. But recruiting for now has not gotten the opposition party as far as they would like – and even if a major candidate were to emerge, the incumbent would likely need a “macaca”-like moment to end up losing the election. Don’t hold your breath, but something could happen.

17. Iowa (Incumbent: Harkin; Last ranking: 21)

There are some rumblings that GOP Rep. King could be looking to jump in the race, which would put the race on the radar screen. Harkin has defeated sitting GOP representatives in all his previous elections, and he is a popular figure in the state, so he would start off favored even if King were to jump in.

18. New Jersey (Incumbent: Frank Lautenberg)

19. Oklahoma (Incumbent: Inhofe)

20. Tennessee (Incumbent: Lamar Alexander; Last ranking: 17)

Democrats had a third-tier challenger in the race that could have at least taken advantage of a huge blunder by Alexander, but he recently withdrew from the race. Rumors that Alexander might withdrew were also put to rest for good when Alexander won the leadership race to become the Senate GOP's number 3.

21. Montana (Incumbent: Baucus)

22. Kansas (Incumbent: Roberts)

Safe

Unless a Craig-like scandal erupts for incumbents in these states, don't expect these seats to switch. These seats are listed in some very loose order of potential and marginal vulnerability.

23. Alabama (Incumbent: Sessions)

24. Georgia (Incumbent: Chambliss)

25. Arkansas (Incumbent: Pryor; Last Ranking: 21)

26. Illinois (Incumbent: Durbin)

27. Delaware (Incumbent: Biden)

28. South Carolina (Incumbent: Graham)

29. Massachusetts (Incumbent: Kerry)

Rumors are circulating that Jim Ogonowski could jump in the race for Republicans. Ogonowski ran a strong campaign in the special election in MA-05 this fall and lost 51-45 only in a district Democrats should carry more forcefully. But a statewide Senate election in a presidential year is not the same as a House special election marked by low turn-out and in one of Massachusetts's least blue districts; and John Kerry is hardly Niki Tsongas. He remains one of the most identifiable faces of the Democratic Party and is unlikely to be rejected by Massachusetts voters.

30. Wyoming (Incumbent: Barrasso)

Rep. Cubin's retirement from the state's at-large seat makes it even less likely that a miracle-candidate will emerge for Democrats and take on Barrasso who was appointed earlier this year after the death of Senator Thomas. Whichever Democrat might have had a small chance to make this into a race is now likely to jump in the House race instead.

31. West Virginia (Incumbent: Rockefeller)

32. Michigan (Incumbent: Levin)

33. Mississippi (Incumbent: Cochran; Last Ranking: 16)

Two months ago, there were rumors that Cochran was on the verge of announcing his retirement, which had led me to rank the race 16th. Instead, Cochran announced he would run for re-election but Trent Lott ended up revealing he would resign at the end of the month, meaning that any high-profile Democrat who might want to run for Senate will go for that seat rather than Cochran's, making this seat safer than it's ever been.

34. Wyoming (Enzi)

35. Rhode Island (Incumbent: Reed)

November rankings: Republicans push back but remain in a tight spot

noreply@blogger.com (Taniel) — Sat, 03 Nov 2007 23:56:00 +0000

September was an awful month for the GOP: John Warner and Hagel retired, Shaheen and Mark Warner jumped in for Democrats... October started much the same way, as New Mexico's Pete Domenici announced he would not run for re-election, opening up yet another very vulnerable seat. But Democrats then ran into a bad patch of their own that culminated in the disastrous news that Bob Kerrey would not run in Nebraska. That by itself made a race that was leaning towards Democrats become a likely hold for Republicans. Meanwhile, the shuffle in New Mexico has still not been resolved, with Democrats scrambling to find a strong candidate.

That Nebraska and New Mexico have dominated Senate news in the past month is obvious in these new rankings: New Mexico rose from the 11th to 4th, while Nebraska collapsed from 4th to 13th (Reminder: Races are organized in order of vulnerability, so that the first ranked race is the most likely to turn-over). But there was some other movement: The departure of Tom Davis from the Virginia Senate race solidified the contest's number one ranking, while Democrats are significantly more upbeat this month about their chances in Kentucky and even in North Carolina. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (KY) should be worried at the Democratic determination to avenge Tom Dashle's 2004 loss and target him for defeat.

The Senate situation is still very fluid with more retirement and recruitment rumors floating around, so that a lot of things could still change in the coming months. But an increasing number of races are settling down, so that we are starting to get a clearer idea of which states are likely to be hotly contested.

Check the October rankings here. Check the September rankings here.

Outlook: Democratic pick-up 4-7 Senate seats.

Prediction: Democrats pick-up a net 5 seats, for a 56-44 majority.

Likely Takeover (1 Republican seat, 0 Democratic seats)

1. Virginia (Open seat; Previous Ranking: 1)

A month after Virginia rose to the top of these rankings, it appears to have permanently secured its place as the most vulnerable seat of the 2008 cycle. The Republicans shot themselves in the foot when their Central Committee voted to choose the party's nominee at a party convention rather than in a primary. As a result, Rep. Tom Davis, who had been preparing to run for Senate for years, decided to stay out of the race. His moderate profile would have made a win in a party convention very difficult considering the more conservative candidacy of former Governor Jim Gilmore. And if the Republicans had one hope to make this race competitive next year, it was that Davis would be able to pick-up votes in his base of Northern Virginia, thus cutting the margins in the bluest region of the state. Polls continue to show Warner has a strong edge against Gilmore, and that cannot be accounted by name recognition as both men are well-known statewide.

Lean Takeover (2 Republican Seats, 0 Democratic Seats)

2. New Hampshire (Incumbent: John Sununu; Previous ranking: 2)

Former Governor Shaheen continues to be the worst nightmare for Senator John Sununu. Polls this past month confirmed that Shaheen was looking strong and was favored against the man who beat her five years ago. Sununu is certainly not out of it though; he mounted a very strong campaign in 2002, defeating the incumbent senator in the primary and the incumbent governor in the general election. Republicans will at least try to defend the seat, and they could definitely narrow the margin. But New Hampshire's Democratic turn in 2006 was so strong that the GOP is unlikely to easily overcome it. They might choose to focus their attention to reclaiming at least one of the House seats.

3. Colorado (Open; Previous ranking: 3)

Colorado is one of the quietest top-tier races, mostly of how early Senator Allard announced his retirement. Both parties settled on a candidate early, and primaries will not be particularly contested. Democrats are running Rep. Udall, and Republicans are running former Rep. Shaffer. In the past month, the second poll of the race was released and showed a tie between the two candidates -- though it had a very high undecided rate. And middle-of-the-road voters are precisely those that broke Democratic in 2004 and 2006. Democrats picked up a Senator's seat, the governorship and two House seats in two cycles, and there is no reason to think that Colorado independents are moving back in the Republican column. Udall is favored to pull away ride this blue trend across the finish line, though the race could certainly remain tight to the end.

Toss-up (4 R, 1 D)

4. New Mexico (Incumbent: Pete Domenici; Last Ranking: 11)

New Mexico has been the big story of October. Pete Domenici announced a surprise retirement at the beginning of the month, setting off much movement among state officials. New Mexico is a swing state in most elections, and politicians from both parties see this as a major opening. On the Republican side, the two major candidates are Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce, two of the three House representatives from New Mexico. Wilson is supposed to be more moderate than Pearce, which has enabled her to survive cycle after cycle in her Democratic-leaning district (she won by 800 votes in 2006). Wilson is lining up more institutional support, but polls have shown Pearce is running stronger in the general election. The main factor against Wilson is her involvement in the attorney firing scandal -- that could hurt her in the primary, but especially in the general election.

On the Democratic side, the big question is whether Rep. Tom Udall will run after all. He ruled it out very quickly weeks ago, but he has been reconsidering in recent days, likely due to intense lobbying from the DSCC. All indications are that he will indeed jump in. If he does, he will start off slightly favored in the general election against either Wilson or Pearce. He has been elected statewide before (he was a two-term Attorney General), and he is a very popular figure. But he would first have to overcome a primary. Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez, very much disliked by progressives, is also running. Chavez would stay very competitive in the general election, though he would certainly not start off favored.

5. Louisiana (Incumbent: Mary Landrieu; Last Ranking: 6)

Republicans are feeling better about this race after Bobby Jindal's blowout victory in the governor's race last month. Granted, Jindal was not facing any significant opposition from Democrats, but his first-round triumph with 54% was nonetheless impressive. Louisiana was trending Republican even before Katrina hit, but Republicans are quite confident that Landrieu has lost much of her base because of hurricane migrations and that newly-turned-Republican state Treasurer John Kennedy will end up the victor.

However, the Republican case should not be overstated. Mitch Landrieu, Senator Landrieu's brother, overwhelmingly won his re-election race as Lieutenant Governor the same day as Jindal's victory. Granted, he was not facing much opposition either, but Democrats are not out in the state, and the Landrieu family name still carries some weight in the state.

6. Minnesota (Incumbent: Norm Coleman; Last Ranking: 5)

Just like in Colorado, the field has been set long ago in Minnesotta, which means that the race has been mostly quiet. Coleman and his challengers Al Franken and Mike Ciresi are all busy raising money -- lots of it. Coleman also made news recently by endorsing Giuliani in the presidential primary, not that that will have a major impact on his senatorial race. Some Democrats still worry that Franken will not be very strong in the general election, though much stranger things have happened in American politics and many reports have emphasized how well Franken has been able to transition from comedian to politician. It is strange, however, that the DSCC has not pressured more politically experienced Democrats who could potentially be stronger into running.

7. Oregon (Incumbent: Gordon Smith; Last Ranking: 8)

Democrats are confident that Gordon Smith is vulnerable, though they did not convince their top-tier candidates to jump in the race. Ducking it out in the primary are House Speaker Jeff Merkley and Steve Novick, with the former favored by the establishment. Democrats they have to weaken Smith early on, especially considering the large amounts of money the incumbent has been raising. Smith's main vulnerability is the national anti-GOP environment, and Dems are trying to challenge the image of Smith as a moderate politician. Merkley recently blasted Smith for voting to confirm federal Court of Appeals nominee Leslie Southwick whose nomination was very controversial, especially on the basis of Soultwick's racial insensitivity.

Lean Retention (2 R, 0 D)

8. Maine (Incumbent: Susan Collins; Last Ranking: 7)

Democrats have a long way to go on this one, and there is reason to think they might have been too optimistic about Susan Collins's vulnerability. A recent Research 2000 poll showed her with a 23 point lead against Rep. Allen. Remember, Allen represents half of the state in the House, so he's not a total unknown either. Democrats know that their only chance in this race is to remind voters over and over again that Collins is a Republican. It worked in 2006 against Lincoln Chaffee in Rhode Island, and circumstances here are similar. With 2008 looking to be just as toxic for the GOP as 2006 was, Democrats have reason to believe they will be able to drive down Collins's numbers. But they still have a long way to go, and they better start soon.

9. Alaska (Incumbent: Ted Stevens; Last Ranking: 9)

Senator Stevens has faced a barrage of bad news in the past months, most of them surrounding the FBI's investigation. Stevens is the longest serving Republican Senator, but he would certainly have to retire if he were indicted. The DSCC is looking to convince Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich to enter the race. Begich recently traveled to Washington to meet with DSCC officials. If he does not run, the GOP will likely have little trouble winning the seat (except if things get really bad for Stevens and he refuses to retire). If he does run, Begich would likely push the incumbent into the fight of his political life, and Stevens would be further hurt by constant new developments in the FBI investigation. If Stevens were to retire, Begich would certainly still be able to mount a competitive campaign, though Alaska has not been kind to Democrats in recent cycles.

Likely retention (6 R, 1 D)

10. Kentucky (Incumbent: Mitch McConnell; Last Ranking: 15)

Democrats are aiming to make Kentucky into the 2008 version of Virginia -- a longshot race that becomes surprisingly competitive. Minority Leader Mitch McConnell should be safe in this Republican-leaning state, but all polls indicate that he is vulnerable. Republicans are not doing well in Kentucky overall: Governor Fletcher is days away from being ousted, and polls have shown Hillary Clinton leading Republicans in this state that Bush won by 20 points in 2004. McConnell appears to be falling victim to the GOP woes, as well as by his increased partisan role in Washington.

The Democrat that has made the most noise about running is State Attorney General Stumbo, who has not yet finalized his plans. Also considering the race is State Auditor Luallen. The candidate Democrats dream of fielding, Rep. Chandler, seems uninterested and would probably prefer to take on Senator Bruining in 2010. Both Stumbo and Luallen could make this race very competitive, so keep your eyes open for their decision in the coming weeks.

11. North Carolina (Incumbent: Elizabeth Dole; Last Ranking: 12)

North Carolina has turned out to be quite a frustrating race for Democrats. They are convinced that Dole is vulnerable, and polls have shown she would be an underdog if Governor Easley ran against her. But he is not, and neither are any of the state's (numerous) Democratic heavyweights. After many more developments in October, Democrats now have two candidates: state Senator Kay Hagan and investment banker Jim Neal. Neither makes the race automatically competitive, but Dole consistently polls under 50% and this could get tight if the DSCC commits to the race.

12. South Dakota (Incumbent: Tim Johnson; Last Ranking: 10)

We finally ended up dropping South Dakota. Tim Johnson has repeated so many times that he has no intention of retiring that we need to take him seriously sooner or late. If the seat is not open, Republicans are very unlikely to be able to challenge it, and they do not have a high-profile candidate in the race for now.

Major caveat: There was new speculation yesterday that Gov. Rounds had met with the NRSC in Washington. If he suddenly decides to run, that would obviously make the race much more competitive. But Rounds's camp strongly denied any such meeting, and it still remains very unlikely. The other reason why SD could get more competitive would be if Johnson starts showing some major physical weakness on the campaign trail. How much will he ever be on the campaign trail? How much will he be able to speak? How much will those questions hurt him?

13. Nebraska (Open; Last Ranking: 4)

This race dropped down dramatically since our last rankings -- probably the biggest drop we will see all cycle. Democrats were very excited about the news of Hagel's retirement in September, and I called the race "the marquee race of the 2008 cycle." But as Republican former Governor Johanns jumped in the race, it became obvious that only Democrat Bob Kerrey could make the race truly competitive. After weeks of silence from Kerrey, he ended up taking a pass on the race, dealing a dramatic blow to Democratic chances.

Right now, Dems have no candidate in the race, and are trying to convince Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey to run. If Fahey enters the race (which seems unlikely at this point), we will probably move the race up in more competitive territory, especially if Johanns becomes entangled in a bruising primary against Attorney General Bruning. But as of now, Democrats are empty-handed and Nebraska remains one of the most Republican states in the nation, so the edge goes to the Republican nominee.

14. Texas (Incumbent: John Cornyn; Last Ranking: 13)

Democrat Mikal Watts, who had promised to spend millions of his own money to fund his candidacy, dropped his bid a few weeks ago, ceding the nomination to state Senator Rick Noriega. Cornyn would be favored against both men, though recent polls have shown that he might be vulnerable to a strong challenge as he hovers around the 50% threshold of vulnerability. How competitive this race will be by next fall will depend on how committed the DSCC is to challenging Cornyn.

15. Idaho (Open; Last Ranking: 16)

The situation is much clearer than it was a month ago. Larry Craig finally made his plans clear: He is not resigning, but he is not running for re-election. Thus, the GOP will not get to appoint Craig's replacement and the seat will remain open. For now there have not been as many GOPers jumping in as expected, and Lieutenant Governor Risch is the frontrunner. With the state's very strong Republican leanings, he is favored to win the general election against Democrat LaRocco.

Democrats do still have an outside chance, however, as the way the race is playing out is the best scenario for them. Republicans will have no incumbent, and Larry Craig's shadow will loom large throughout 2008. Craig is still fighting his guilty plea, and the story is likely to go on for much of next spring, continuing to tarnish the GOP brand in the mind of Idaho voters.

16. Mississippi (Incumbent: Cochran; Last Ranking: 30)

Big jump for Mississippi, but it could very well be short-lived. There has been plenty of speculation this past week that Senator Cochran could retire, which would be a huge surprise considering most retirement talk had disappeared when Rep. Pickering, Cochran's heir apparent, announced he would retire from the House to go in the private sector, implying that Cochran was running for re-election. If Cochran runs again, the race will drop back to 30.

But if Cochran does retire (and he should announce within two weeks), expect Mississippi to feature a very competitive election and the race to move up the rankings. Democrats will probably run Attorney General Moore, a popular statewide figure who could give Pickering a very serious run. Mississippi remains a very Republican state, but an open seat could go either way.

Almost Safe

All these states could become competitive under the right set of circumstances. But recruiting for now has not gotten the opposition party as far as they would like – and even if a major candidate were to emerge, the incumbent would likely need a “macaca”-like moment to end up losing the election. Don’t hold your breath, but something could happen.

17. Tennessee (Incumbent: Lamar Alexander; Last Ranking: 16)

Not much news in this race. Democrats are still hoping their candidate McWherter will test Alexander, but it would take a major stumble on the incumbent's part to make this race competitive.

18. New Jersey (Incumbent: Frank Lautenberg)

Republicans at least now have a candidate in the race. Businesswoman Anne Estabrook declared that she would run against Launtenberg, and the GOP is hoping to get a state Senator or Assemblyman in the race as well. With Lautenberg posting weak approval numbers, Republicans hope something might happen... but this is New Jersey, and no Democrat have good approval ratings. Republicans have probably learned from 2004 and 2006 and will not make the same mistake for the third time.

19. Oklahoma (Incumbent: Inhofe)

Republicans seem afraid enough of state Senator Andrew Rice to start linking him to the Italian Communist Party... but I am still unconvinced that Inhofe has much to fear in this very Republican state, especially in a presidential year.

20. Montana (Incumbent: Baucus)

21. Iowa (Incumbent: Harkin)

Time is passing and Republicans seem to have given up on recruiting a decent candidate to run against Harkin, which is a surprise given how close his previous re-election races have been.

22. Kansas (Incumbent: Roberts; Last Ranking: 25)
Reports that the DSCC is trying to recruit Governor Sibelius to run against Sen. Roberts made me move this from "Safe" to "Almost safe." Sibelius's entrance would make this an explosive and unpredictable contest -- but it still seems extremely unlikey.

Safe

Unless a Craig-like scandal erupts for incumbents in these states, don't expect these seats to switch. These seats are listed in some very loose order of potential and marginal vulnerability.

23. Alabama (Incumbent: Sessions)

24. Georgia (Incumbent: Chambliss)

25. Arkansas (Incumbent: Pryor; Last Ranking: 21)

This race had been rated "Almost safe" the past two months because of the small odds that Mike Huckabee would jump to the Senate race. But he is doing better by the day and competing with the Big Four, and he is definitely at the top of the veepstakes, making Pryor that much more safe.

26. Illinois (Incumbent: Durbin)

27. Delaware (Incumbent: Biden)

This race would be more competitive if it opened up, i.e. if Biden won the Democratic nomination for President and did not run for re-election as a result. Decide on the odds of that happening yourself.

28. Wyoming (Incumbent: Barrasso)

29. South Carolina (Incumbent: Graham)

Graham doesn't have much to fear from Democrats, but the conservative base would love a primary challenge against him).

30. West Virginia (Incumbent: Rockefeller)

31. Massachussets (Incumbent: Kerry)

32. Michigan (Incumbent: Levin)

33. Wyoming (Enzi)

34. Rhode Island (Incumbent: Reed)

October rankings: Everything breaks for Democrats

noreply@blogger.com (Taniel) — Sun, 30 Sep 2007 19:02:00 +0000

September was a great month for Senate Democrats. It started with news that John Warner was retiring, featured the endless saga of Larry Craig's guilty plea to lewd behavior, saw another crucial GOP seat open up in Nebraska and was marked with recruitment coups with the candidacies of Mark Warner in VA and Jeanne Shaheen in NH. In fact, the only bad news Democrats are fearing now is that Bob Kerrey might end up taking a pass in Nebraska -- but even there, the fat lady hasn't yet sung.

All of this is really icing on the cake for Democrats, who already felt great before Labor Day. Not only is the GOP is defending 22 seats, and the Dems only 12, but the NRSC has been doing poorly in fundraising and recruitment, failing to move to target states beyond... the one state of Louisiana. Democrats, on the other hand, are expanding the map left and right: While they are huge underdogs in TN, KY, NM, TX, and ID, odds are they will at least put one of those in play (just like VA in 2006 and KY in 2004 became competitive only in the last stretch). And the most problematic second-tier seat is turning to be Alaska, where incumbent Ted Stevens is facing significant bribery allegations.

The coming weeks are likely to bring more news that will determine how some of these races shape up. Bob Kerrey's decision is obviously what everyone is waiting for, but there are other important questions: Will Craig retire as he had promised? Will there be more open seats, with all eyes turned towards SD's Tim Johnson, AK's Stevens, and NM's Pete Domenici? Will Democrats find candidates to run against Dole in NC, Domenici in NM, Stevens in AK, McConnell in KY? All of these races could end up on the map, but Democrats have to succeed in their recruitment efforts first.

Check the September rankings here.

Outlook: Democratic pick-up 4-7 seats.

Prediction: Democrats pick-up a net 5 seats, for a 56-44 majority.

Likely Takeover (1 Republican seat, 0 Democratic seats)

1. Virginia (Open seat; Previous Ranking: 3)

Virginia inaugurates the "Likely Takeover" category. When John Warner announced he was retiring at the end of August, Virginia immediately became a top pick-up opportunity for Democrats. And events in September certainly didn't help dispel the notion that this is their race to lose: Very popular former Governor Mark Warner entered the race on their behalf, while the GOP is showing every indication that it is heading towards a divisive primary between moderate Rep. Tom Davis and conservative former Governor Jim Gilmore. To make matters much worse for Republicans, a few polls taken this month show Warner with massive leads of about 25% or more against both Davis and Gilmore.

Republicans argue that Warner has never been fully tested, and that they can lower his ratings by finally going on the offensive against him. While this may be true, Democrats can rest in peace (for now) for two simple reasons: (1) Warner has a lot of room to give before being truly threatened given the massive nature of his lead, and (2) Warner will have plenty of time to re-introduce himself to voters and strengthen their good impression of him.

That said, Tom Davis could make the race more competitive. He represents Northern Virginia, the region that has been trended dramatically blue over the past few years. Any Democrat who wants to win in VA has to carry Fairfax and the neighboring counties overwhelmingly, and Davis could cut in Warner's margins there. He first needs to win the GOP nomination then. If Republicans nominate their candidate through a primary, Davis has a good chance of winning. But if they opt to nominate him through a party convention, conservative activists could opt for the weaker Gilmore.

Lean Takeover (2 Republican Seats, 0 Democratic Seats)

2. New Hampshire (Incumbent: John Sununu; Previous ranking: 1)

A lot has changed in this race in the past month. At the beginning of September, the Democratic field was composed of three candidates who were hoping to take on Senator Sununu. A few weeks later, former Governor Jeanne Shaheen announced she would enter the race, setting up a rematch of the 2002 election. Two of the three Democrats already in the race (Marchand and Swett) withdrew, leaving Dartmouth Professor Jay Buckley as Shaheen's sole primary opposition. Many grassroots activists are questioning the party's rush to rally around Shaheen, a moderate politician who supported the war in 2003 and was not known for being particularly progressive during her terms as governor. But Shaheen is likely to coast to the nomination.

Polls throughout the summer showed Shaheen had Shaheen with gigantic leads averaging 20 points. That put Sununu in an even worse position than Santorum was in in 2006. How can an incumbent who is trailing by 20 points a year before the election possibly come back to win another term? But two polls taken shortly after Shaheen jumped in the race made Democrats a bit more confident. Shaheen only led by 5%. That is enough to make her the favorite (an incumbent in the low 40s rarely survives), but certainly not enough to count Sununu out.

Republicans argue that they beat Shaheen before, and they will use the same tactics against her in 2008. They see her record on taxes as particularly prone to attack. But Sununu barely edged Shaheen in 2002, at the height of Bush's popularity. The GOP took a drubbing in New Hampshire in 2006, and the Republican brand looks even worse today -- what fundamentals can Sununu rely on to come-back?

3. Colorado (Open; Previous ranking: 2)

This race has not made much news lately, probably because the basic story-line was settled months ago: Senator Allard retired, and both parties rallied around a candidate. Rep. Udall for Democrats, and former Rep. Shaffer for the GOP. Colorado has been voting for Democrats in open seat races in the past few years (the Salazar brothers in 2004, Governor Ritter in 2006), and have to be considered slightly favored here again. A recent poll commissioned by the Shaffer campaign gave Udall a 5-point lead. That certainly shows the state could still end up going for Republicans, but the poll was a partisan one, so it should be taken with a big grain of salt. This race will certainly shift around on the basis of future polls and campaign developments, but for now it is remarkably static.

Toss-up (4 R, 1 D)

4. Nebraska (Open; Last Ranking: 8)

Chuck Hagel announced his retirement last week, setting up what many people view as the marquee race of the 2008 cycle: former Republican Governor Mike Johanns versus former Democratic Senator Bob Kerrey. Both men were rumored to be very interested in the race, but for now only Johanns has announced his candidacy. Recent reports indicate that Kerrey might be leaning against a run after all!

This race's outlook will change dramatically in the coming days, as Kerrey is likely to announce his intentions very soon. If he does run, the race might edge into "lean takeover" territory -- given Kerrey's popularity in the state. If he ends up staying out of it, this race would drop down significantly, Johanns would be the favorite even if Omaha's Democratic Mayor Fahey agrees to jump in. Fahey would keep the race competitive, but he would find it difficult to overcome the state's overwhelming Republican lean, especially in a presidential year.

The second hope Democrats harbor is that Johanns will be stuck in a divisive primary. The state's Attorney General Bruning had been planning to run against Chuck Hagel in the primary, and he is showing no intention of backing down now that Johanns is in the race. Former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub entered the race for a few days, ran ads, and then decided to withdraw, setting up a two-way primary. This could prove an opening for the Democratic candidate (either Kerrey or Fahey) who would have time to introduce himself to voters and define the terms of the campaign.

5. Minnesota (Incumbent: Norm Coleman; Last Ranking: 6)

Coleman is showing signs of vulnerability, but the question of whether the Democratic candidates are strong enough to take him on remains. There is no question that the DFL could have found a stronger Democrat to take on Coleman, but a recent poll showed Coleman with a single-digits lead against both comedian Al Franken and businessman Mike Ciresi -- which seems to indicate both would offer a strong challenge to the incumbent. Also, Franken has been a tremendous fundraiser, while Ciresi is very wealthy and willing to use his own money to finance his campaign, so either of them would have the resources to make this truly competitive.

6. Louisiana (Incumbent: Mary Landrieu; Last Ranking: 7)

This race remained very static through September, for two very simple reasons. First, the Louisiana political world is focused on next month's gubernatorial race. Second, John Kennedy -- the likely Republican candidate against Landrieu -- is for now concentrated on his re-election as the state's Treasurer. He is running uncontested, but he will likely use the next two months to build up his network and connections, in preparation of 2008.

Landrieu has been aware of the target on her back since 2002, and has been preparing and fundraising accordingly. But the race nonetheless move up a spot: Republicans are now much more confident that Kennedy (who just switched his party affiliation in August) will jump in the Senate race, guaranteeing that Landrieu faces a strong challenge. And the fact that Landrieu is the only truly endangered Democrat means that Republicans will put all their offensive resources and potential for nasty campaigning in this state.

7. Maine (Incumbent: Susan Collins; Last Ranking: 5)

It is very curious that this election has been one of the most engaged of this cycle's, given that Collins portrays herself as a moderate non-partisan Republican who fits the needs of a progressive New England state. The liberal blogs clearly realize they have to make Collins into a more partisan figure to tie her to the GOP brand and make her into the 2008 cycle's Lincoln Chafee, a popular figure that loses re-election because of the R next to his name. Tim Allen is a top-tier candidate and is willing to do what he needs to do to take Collins down, but it will not be easy.

8. Oregon (Incumbent: Gordon Smith; Last Ranking: 4)

This race has been pretty quiet since Democrat Jeff Merkley, the Speaker of the Oregon House, announced his candidacy last month. Smith's biggest vulnerability is the Iraq War, and he has been inching away from full support to Bush's policies -- though Democrats are sure to argue that he has been putting on a show without actually voting for meaningful propositions. Republicans are also preparing to blur differences on the Iraq issue by pointing out that Merkley voted for a resolution in the Oregon House supporting the war. It worked for Bush against Kerry in 2004, but a lot has happened since then... Democrats would have better served if they had gotten one of their top-tier candidates in the race, but they are sure to make this race competitive.

Lean Retention (1 R, 1 D)

9. Alaska (Incumbent: Ted Stevens; Last Ranking: 14)

It seems that every day brings worse news for Ted Stevens. Since the beginning of September, a VECO executive testified in court that he had bribed Stevens's son, and that he had sent employees to renovate the Senator's house, the same that was raided earlier this summer by the FBI. Later in the month, it was revealed that the FBI had taped some of Stevens's phone conversations, and the state's Republican governor started talking about Stevens in a more critical tone.

The FBI investigation seems to be gathering stream, so the inevitable question is whether Stevens can even run again given the likelihood he will face new bribery allegations weekly throughout the campaign. If he runs, his hold on the state is strong enough that it would still take much more for Democrats to topple him though Stevens would clearly be very vulnerable. If the seat opens up, Republicans would probably start with an edge given the state's strong Republican lean. Democrats are looking at Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich to make this race as competitive as it should be.

10. South Dakota (Incumbent: Tim Johnson; Last Ranking: 9)

The fundamental equation of the race has not changed: If Johnson runs, Republicans are unlikely to mount a challenge against him. If he retires, Governor Rounds will probably jump in the race and start off as a strong favorite, even if Democratic Rep. Herseth tries to upgrade to the Senate. Johnson made his first public appearance at the end of August, and he has repeatedly stated since then he has every intention of running. He is raising money, and there seems to be no reason to doubt him at this point, which means Democrats are confident they will keep the seat. But Johnson clearly hasn't made up his mind 100% and has to be at least considering whether he is up for six more years in the Senate.

Likely retention (6 R, 0 D)

11. New Mexico (Incumbent: Pete Domenici; Last Ranking: 10)

This race will automatically move up if Democrats get a candidate in the race, but they have so far been unable to do so. This is really surprising given Domenici's ethical troubles following revelations that he was involved in the attorney firing scandal. Domenici has always been popular in his state, but a recent SUSA poll shows that his approval rating has collapsed to a dismal 41%. New Mexico voters are inching back towards Democrats after trying out Bush in 2004, and it is shocking the DSCC hasn't taken advantage of Domenici's troubles yet.

12. North Carolina (Incumbent: Elizabeth Dole; Last Ranking: 11)

Democrats have been convinced that Dole is vulnerable, but they still have to get a candidate in the race... Governor Easley crushed their hopes early in the cycle, and the DSCC has been looking for a replacement ever since. The latest name considered: State Rep. Gaier Martin, a veteran of Afghanistan. A recent Democratic poll shows Martin trailing Dole by 15%, with Dole under 50%, making the match-up potentially interesting but not too worrisome yet. And Democrats first have to actually convince Martin of running.

13. Texas (Incumbent: John Cornyn; Last Ranking: 12)

Two polls taken in September show Cornyn above 50% over his two Democratic challengers Mikal Carter Watts and Rick Noriega, with a lead averaging 17-18%. He is not showing obvious signs of vulnerabilities, but netroots are determined to make Noriega competitive and put resources in the race. First-term Cornyn hasn't developed a strong hold on his state, and his approval rating is weak enough to make it plausible that he could be threatened. But this is Texas, in a presidential year.

14. Idaho (Either open or with a yet-unappointed incumbent; Last Ranking: 15)

This race is almost unclassifiable at this point. All hell broke loose for Senator Craig in late August when it was revealed that he had plead guilty to lewd behavior. Craig then claimed he would resign at the end of September, but has since then backtracked on his promise. He is trying to withdraw his guilty plea, and the judge is likely to offer a ruling very soon (presumably next week). If the judge rules in Craig's favor, it appears that Craig would remain in the Senate until the end of his term. But even if the judge refuses, recent comments by Craig's lawyer indicate that Craig might still not resign!

What appears certain is that Craig will not try to run for re-election in 2008. But whether he resigns will determine whether the seat will be open, or whether Governor Otter will get to appoint a replacement that would then run in 2008 as an incumbent. Idaho is overwhelmingly Republican, and the GOP has a good bench, so they are likely to come away with a victory in either case. But if the seat becomes open, the GOP might divide itself in a bloody primary which could give a small opening to former Rep. LaRocco.

15. Kentucky (Incumbent: Mitch McConnell; Last Ranking: 13)

Democrats are on the verge of conquering the Governor's Mansion this November, and they are convinced they could extend their streak of Kentucky success to next year's Senate race. The Nation's cover was recently devoted to the promising grassroots movement in Kentucky. Mitch McConnell is no easy target; he is, after all, the Minority Leader. Democrats are hopeful that they can make this competitive with the candidacy of Attorney General Stumbo, who formed an explanatory committee last month. Rumors in September had it that Stumbo was about to drop out of the race, but nothing else has filtered since then.

16. Tennessee (Incumbent: Lamar Alexander; Last Ranking: 19)

Ray McWherter, the son of a former Democratic Governor, announced he would take on Lamar Alexander last week. Democrats are at least assured of being able to compete if Alexander has a George Allen-like meltdown. Don't hold your breath for the race to be any more competitive for now.

Almost Safe

All these states could become competitive under the right set of circumstances. But recruiting for now has not gotten the opposition party as far as they would like – and even if a major candidate were to emerge, the incumbent would likely need a “macaca”-like moment to end up losing the election. Don’t hold your breath, but something could happen.

17. New Jersey (Incumbent: Lautenberg; Last Ranking: 19)
A new poll last week showed how unpopular Lautenberg is. Asked whether the incumbent was too old to get another term, an overwhelming majority said that he was. But the race is only rated 17; all New Jersey Democrats have dismal approval ratings. Their saving grace is that NJ voters trust the GOP even less. The Republicans dump a ton of money every cycle in New Jersey with no benefits or progress whatsoever. They have no candidate against Lautenberg for now, and are unlikely to mount a strong challenge.

18. Oklahoma (Incumbent: Inhofe)
19. Montana (Incumbent: Baucus)
20. Iowa (Incumbent: Harkin)
21. Alabama (Senator Sessions)
22. Arkansas (Incumbent: Pryor)
Arkansas is deemed "almost" safe only because of the small possibility that Huckabee drops out of running for President and goes for Senate. This remains very unlikely because Huckabee's fortunes are improving in the GOP race (especially in Iowa) and that he is the most likely vice-presidential candidates for the Republicans.

Safe

Unless a Craig-like scandal erupts for incumbents in these states, don't expect these seats to switch. These seats are listed in some very loose order of potential and marginal vulnerability.
23. Georgia (Incumbent: Chambliss)
24. Illinois (Incumbent: Durbin)
25. Kansas (Incumbent: Roberts)
26. Delaware (Incumbent: Biden)
This race would be more competitive if it opened up, i.e. if Biden won the Democratic nomination for President and did not run for re-election as a result. Decide on the odds of that happening yourself.
27. Wyoming (Incumbent: Barrasso)
28. South Carolina (Incumbent: Graham)
Graham doesn't have much to fear from Democrats, but the conservative base would love a primary challenge against him).
29. West Virginia (Incumbent: Rockefeller)
30. Mississippi (Incumbent: Cochran)
31. Massachussets (Incumbent: Kerry)
32. Michigan (Incumbent: Levin)
33. Wyoming (Enzi)
34. Rhode Island (Incumbent: Reed)

First Senate rankings: How high can Democrats rise?

noreply@blogger.com (Taniel) — Sat, 01 Sep 2007 19:00:00 +0000

It’s the first of the month! That means it’s time for our (first) Senate rankings.

It has been obvious for months that the 2008 Senate cycle would favor Democrats. Even before taking into account the anti-GOP national mood that allowed Democrats to prevail in every close Senate race in 2006 but Tennessee, the raw numbers tell the story: the GOP is defending 22 seats, and the Dems only 12. Add to this the continually deteriorating atmosphere for Republicans, and you get poor fundraising for the NRSC, recruitment failures, and pessimist Republican operatives. The DSCC has been moving aggressively to press its advantage and to expand the playing field to new states. For now, NRSC Chairman Ensign is doing an even worst job than Sen. Dole did in 2005-2006. His fundraising is even worse, and he has failed to recruit top-tier Republican challengers – something Dole had at least done a good job at (Kean in NJ and Steele in MD, who could both have won in an other election cycle).

The rankings reflect this state of affair. The races are ranked from most vulnerable to take-over to safest to the incumbent party – and the top 6 seats are Republican. In fact, there are only 2 Democratic seats (Louisiana and South Dakota) in this list of 15 races! The WaPo quotes a GOP pollster as saying, "It's always darkest right before you get clobbered over the head with a pipe wrench. But then it actually does get darker.”

It is now too late for Republicans to reverse the situation – their endangered seats can no longer be made safe – but they can still hope to save face if they expand the playing field a bit: Democratic seats in Iowa and Montana have the potential of being competitive, but Republicans have barely made a move to challenge them yet. But this is one of the most important challenges facing the GOP in 2008: It is playing defense in so many states it can afford neither the time nor the money to go on the offensive against Democratic incumbents to at least test their vulnerability, and the NRSC is likely to settle on only challenging Landrieu in Louisiana.

Outlook: Democratic pick-up of 3-6 seats

Prediction: Democrats pick-up a net 5 seats, for a 56-44 majority.

Lean Takeover (3 Republican Seats, 0 Democratic Seats)

1. New Hampshire (Incumbent: John Sununu)

The Pennsylvania of the 2008 cycle. Sen. Sununu, preparing for his first re-election race, finds himself in a huge hole. If former Governor Shaheen enters the race in September (there hasn’t been much news from her since Robert Novak reported a few months back that her husband was saying there was a 70% she would run), she will start with a double-digit lead. A few polls already released have her 20% ahead. Casey was in a similar position against then Senator Santorum starting in the summer of 2005 – and he never looked back.

New Hampshire’s monumental swing to the Democrats in 2006 (they pulled two upsets to grab both the House seats and posted huge gains in the state house and in the state senate to take control of both) makes it that much harder for Sununu to hold on in a state that is clearly trending blue. And it also guarantees that the race stays competitive even if Shaheen takes a pass. The race will then undoubtedly be much closer, but the Democrats have other candidates that would make Sununu sweat it out. There are three candidates vying for the Democratic nod for now: Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand, Katrina Swett and Jay Buckey. Swett has been painted by the netroots as a Lieberman-type moderate (she did support Lieberman’s independant campaign in 06) who has to be stopped at all costs in the primary, so things could get ugly pretty fast.

The safest bet is that they will all withdraw if Shaheen gets in, but they seem to be increasingly annoyed at the way they are being treated, so some of them might end up staying in. They were in particular annoyed at a DSCC release in early August that argued for the competitiveness of the NH race by touting Shaheen’s candidacy, but there were no mention of the other candidates.

2. Colorado (Open)

Senator Allard had come from behind to win re-election in 2002. But he clearly did not relish the thought of another close election, and he chose to call it quits early in the cycle. The Democratic field has quickly unified behind Rep. Udall, who has been preparing to run for years now. He has been raising a lot of money, and hoping to capitalize on the state’s blue trend: Salazar’s victory in 2004, two House seats picked-up in 2004 and 2006 and the 2006 take-over of the governorship.

Udall seemed to have closed the deal a few months ago when the Republican front-runner suddenly withdrew, leaving the Republicans without a strong candidate. But they quickly found former Rep. Bob Shaffer, who lost the 2004 Senate Republican primary. Shaffer is strongly conservative, and the Democrats will paint him as too far to the right. But Republicans will strike right back, charging Udall is too liberal for the state (it is true that Udall represents one of the more Democratic districts in the state, and that his voting record has put him in the liberal wing of the House).

The race has not been particularly eventful for now – except for recent allegations that Shaffer has engaged in some unethical conduct, a story to be followed for sure.

3. Virginia (Open seat)

Sen. John Warner announced on Friday, August 31st that he will not run for a sixth term. Virginia thus became a huge opportunity for Democrats. But to capitalize on the state’s recent move towards the Democratic Party (the Democrats need popular former Governor Mark Warner to jump in the race for the Democrats. This would make it very difficult for Republicans to keep the seat.

Yes, Virginia remains a Republican state – and the GOP nominee will be strongly favored in the presidential election. But the Democrats are on a roll in the state with the back-to-back victories of Gov. Kaine in 2005 and Sen. Webb in 2006. And Mark Warner left office immensely popular, which probably is what got Kaine elected in the first place. To make matters worse, the Republicans are likely to break in a bitter fight, with conservatives already lining up behind former Governor (and brief presidential candidate) Gilmore to block Rep. Tom Davis, a moderate Republican who has been raising a lot of money (and who was all but endorsed today by John Warner).

This would not, however, be a blowout for Democrats. Virginia is still a Republican state – and the increased turnout of a presidential year would guarantee that the race stays close. Also, if the Republican candidate is Davis, he could neutralize some of the Democratic advantage in Fairfax, since he represents the Northern part of the state in Congress. And if Mark Warner takes a pass (and he certainly could, either because he wants to run for Governor again in 2009 or because he wants to stay in contention to be the vice-presidential pick next summer), Republicans would be once again favored to hold on to this seat.

Toss-up (3 R, 1 D)

4. Oregon (Incumbent: Gordon Smith)

Gordon Smith has known he has a target on his back for a while now, and he has taken steps accordingly. He has been the first Republican Senator to break with Bush on the War – but is that too little too late? Like all Republican defectors, Smith has never voted against the Administration on war-related issues, and Democrats are poised to use this to attack him. Oregon is a blue state – albeit by the smallest of margins – and the Democrat will benefit from presidential coattails. Until recently, Democrats did not have a candidate, as their top choices passed on the race one after the other. But they suddenly got two! The favorite is shaping to be Jeff Merkley, the Speaker of the Oregon House – widely credited for organizing the Democratic take-over of that chamber last year, and for going forward with a progressive agenda since then.

5. Maine (Incumbent: Susan Collins)

If New Hampshire is this cycle’s Pennsylvania, Maine could be its Rhode Island. A popular Republican incumbent in a very blue state facing a Democrat who does his best to tie him to the Bush Administration and the Iraq War. Olympia Snowe got a pass in 2006, but Sen. Susan Collins is getting no such thing. Rep. Tom Allen has already started running against her, and the race is heating up.

But Collins is no Chaffee. Chaffee committed mistake after mistake, falling behind early in the fall of 2006. He also faced a significant challenge on the Right, only surviving his primary 54% to 46%. Collins faces no such hurdle, and has already set her sight on Allen. Democratic operatives have realized how hard it will to drive Collins down, and it is no coincidence that the blogosphere is going after her the hardest: DailyKos and other progressive blogs have been pouncing on Collins for her demand that Allen stop sending people to film her, and state papers are jumping in the fray – mostly against Collins.

6. Minnesota (Incumbent: Norm Coleman)

Yes, Al Franken appears to be for real. He has raised millions of dollars, and is attacking Senator Coleman from all directions. But he will first have to survive the primary against very wealthy businessman Mike Ciresi, who is willing to spend his own money to win the race. The big question for now is whether Al Franken is electable – the answer could very well be that this is the state that made Jesse Ventura governor. Coleman is definitely vulnerable, and early polls show him winning against Franken and Ciresi by about 7%. The tragic end of the 2002 campaign – in which Coleman defeated Mondale after Senator Wellstone’s late October death – has made this seat a top Democratic target for five years now.

7. Louisiana (Incumbent: Mary Landrieu)

Mary Landrieu is on everyone’s list of the most endangered incumbents. Louisiana is trending red, and Rep. Jindal will likely cruise to taking over the governor mansion this fall. To make matters worse, Landrieu won re-election with a pale 52% by in 2002 and that was before Katrina changed the state’s demographics to the GOP’s advantage.

Republicans have not as of yet filed a strong candidate to take on Landrieu. But they are getting closer. They tried for months to get state Treasurer John Kennedy – a conservative Democrat – to switch parties and run against Landrieu. Rove personally headed this effort. And it paid off a week ago, when Kennedy became a Republican, fueling speculation that he would jump in the Senate race.

Until he does, Landrieu is getting a head start. She is raising a lot of money, fully aware she is vulnerable. And she is in a stronger position today than many expected she would be. With the 08 climate damaging Republican chances everywhere, Landrieu has at worse a 50-50 chance of returning to the Senate.

Lean Retention (1 R, 1 D)

8. Nebraska (Incumbent: Chuck Hagel)

Chuck Hagel has announced nothing for now – and he actually called a press conference back last spring to announce that he had nothing to announce. In front of dozens of reporters ready to cover a major announcement, Hagel declared: "I'm here today to announce that my family and I will make a decision on my political future later this year." NPR’s Ken Rudin wrote, “Nothing happened. Nothing other than Hagel saying that any announcement will come later in the year. It was the oddest sensation, as the realization settled in that a complete non-announcement announcement was at hand.”

But with the campaign season gearing up, Hagel will have to soon make up his mind. Will he run for president, will he run for re-election or will he retire from politics all together? If he ends up running, he will face a bruising Republican primary against Attorney General Joe Runing, angry over Hagel’s anti-war rhetoric. But the winner of the primary would be favored, as it seems unlikely major Democrats would jump in if Hagel is running.

But if Hagel retires, Democrats are sure to make this a very competitive open seat. Former Senator Bob Kerrey is eyeing a return to the Senate – and he would make the race extremely competitive. Many Democrats would prefer Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey to be their candidate. Republicans would probably try to get former Gov Johanns in the race. In a presidential year with increased turnout, Republicans would start slightly favored.

9. South Dakota (Incumbent: Tim Johnson)

I am the first to admit the Democrats are being a bit hypocritical in South Dakota. Democrats are busy fundraising for Johnson, while blasting Republicans whenever they mention that they are planning on competing in the state (witness Dashle’s reaction when Ensign said the NRSC was gearing for a run).

Johnson made his first public appearance since December on August 28th, in a highly choreographed event where he proclaimed “I am back!” In an interview on Nightline, he announced he plans to run for re-election, and he expects to win! If Johnson does not change his mind in the next few weeks, it does seem that he is appears healthy enough for voters to be willing to give him a second chance. And Republicans are unlikely to mount a strong challenge against Johnson, despite the fact that Johnson only survived by 540 votes in 2002.

But if Johnson announces retirement, the open seat would probably lean Republican, as Governor Rounds would probably jump in for the GOP. The Democrats would maybe field Rep. Herseth, the most popular Democrat in the state. But then who would they have left to run for the House? Do they really want to give up a House seat that looks as safe as a Democrat can ever be in SD to compete in a difficult Senate race?

Likely retention (6 R)

10. New Mexico (Incumbent: Pete Domenici)

This race entirely depends on what the incumbent decides to do. If Domenici retires, the state will become one of the most competitive. But we are betting the seat will not open up, and are ranking it accordingly. In fact, Bush raised money for Domenici at the end of August, which would seem to indicate Domenici has no plans of retiring.

Domenici has always been a popular incumbent, but he has taken a direct hit from the attorney firing scandal. He has been accused of interfering with the judicial system, trying to pressure a prosecutor and working to get him fired. That has hurt him badly – but it has not been fatal. The Democrats have no candidate for now, but a strong contender could put the seat in play.

11. North Carolina (Incumbent: Elizabeth Dole)

Democrats love attacking Elizabeth Dole for her terrible tenure as NRSC chairman in the 2006 cycle. They delight in her weak poll numbers and low approval ratings. They view her as very beatable. After all, Dole did not win by much against Bowles in 2002 – and that was in a very Republican year. But North Carolina is for now one of the Democrats’ biggest recruiting failures. Governor Easley and other major Democrats have announced they will not run, and Democrats are still looking. Polls show that Dole wins by healthy margins against very little-known Democrats, but she stays way under 50% - putting her in very vulnerable territory. We should better know what to expect from this race in the next few months.

12. Texas (Incumbent: John Cornyn)

Cornyn is an unpopular incumbent, with widely documented problems. But he comfortably won his seat in 2002 in what was supposed to be a competitive open seat, and Texas has hardly gotten bluer since then. Yet Democrat Mikal Carter Watts has announced his intention of spending millions of his own money to beat Cornyn. Democrats are also looking at the candidacy of state Rep. Rick Noriega. This at least guaranteeing that Democrats will have a fighting chance if Cornyn has an Allen-like meltdown.

13. Kentucky (Incumbent: Mitch McConnell)

Democrats are dreaming to oust Senate Majority Leader McConnell – payback for Dashle’s defeat in 2004. They almost have a candidate: Kentucky Attorney General Gregory Stumbo has formed an explanatory committee. But a lot of things will have to break their way for the seat to become competitive. Their first hope is that the corruption scandals that are driving Kentucky Republicans down will hurt McConnell as well. Democrats are poised to win the governor’s mansion by defeating the incumbent Fletcher this November – but McConnell is no Fletcher. The race will only heat up after the governor’s race is resolved.

14. Alaska (Incumbent: Ted Stevens)

Stevens has been serving in the Senate longer than anyone can remember. He hinted he would retire two years ago, when Democrats frustrated his efforts to implement drilling in Alaska. But he has given no further indication of going anywhere. And he was expected to sail through re-election (Democrats got burned the past two cycles when popular former Gov. Knowles failed to win the 2004 Senate race and the 2006 Governor’s race, so they were hardly expected to even try against the veteran Stevens) but that was before the FBI raided Stevens’ house looking. The entire Alaska delegation is now embroiled in a corruption scandal, and Democrats are looking to make that an issue.

Dems are trying to entice Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich in the race. If he declines, Stevens won’t have much difficulty coming back to the Senate. But if Begich announces his candidacy, this race will likely go up in the rankings.

15. Idaho (Incumbent: Will be appointed by Gov. Otter soon)

This race was nowhere on the radar screen until all hell broke loose for Sen. Craig on the 27th of August. His June guilty plea to lewd behavior charges (which were not that huge a surprise, since rumors that he is gay have been going around for months) almost eclipsed news of Gonzales’s resignation, and took the standards of Republican hypocrisy to a whole new level. For six days, Republicans piled on Craig, pressuring him to resign. He finally agreed on Saturday the 1st, which is going to allow Governor Otter - a Republican - to pick his replacement. Given Idaho's strong Republican roots, and given that Craig's replacement will have more than a year to build up his incumbency, Democrats would need a second miracle to make this seat really competitive.

Almost Safe

All these states could become competitive under the right set of circumstances. But recruiting for now has not gotten the opposition party as far as they would like – and even if a major candidate were to emerge, the incumbent would likely need a “macaca”-like moment to end up losing the election. Don’t hold your breath, but something could happen.

16. Oklahoma
17. Montana (Incumbent: Baucus)
18. Iowa (Incumbent: Harkin)
19. Tennessee (Incumbent: Alexander)
This seat would dramatically move up if Sen. Alexander was to retire. Would Ford then enter the race?
20. New Jersey (Incumbent: Lautenberg)
Lautenberg is very unpopular and has low approval ratings. But so do all New Jersey Democrats. Their saving grace is that the New Jersey GOP is even more unpopular.
21. Alabama (Senator Sessions)
22. Arkansas (Incumbent: Pryor)
Arkansas is deemed "almost" safe only because of the extremely small possibility that Huckabee drops out of running for President and goes for Senate.

Safe

Unless a Craig-like scandal erupts for incumbents in these states, don't expect these seats to switch. These seats are listed in some very loose order of potential and marginal vulnerability.
23. Georgia (Incumbent: Chambliss)
24. Illinois (Incumbent: Durbin)
25. Kansas (Incumbent: Roberts)
26. Delaware (Incumbent: Biden)
This race would be more competitive if it opened up, i.e. if Biden won the Democratic nomination for President and did not run for re-election as a result. Decide on the odds of that happening yourself.
27. Wyoming (Incumbent: Barrasso)
28. South Carolina (Incumbent: Graham)
Graham doesn't have much to fear from Democrats, but the conservative base would love a primary challenge against him).
29. West Virginia (Incumbent: Rockefeller)
30. Mississippi (Incumbent: Cochran)
31. Massachussets (Incumbent: Kerry)
31. Michigan (Incumbent: Levin)
32. Wyoming (Enzi)
33. Rhode Island (Incumbent: Reed)