October rankings: Everything breaks for Democrats

September was a great month for Senate Democrats. It started with news that John Warner was retiring, featured the endless saga of Larry Craig's guilty plea to lewd behavior, saw another crucial GOP seat open up in Nebraska and was marked with recruitment coups with the candidacies of Mark Warner in VA and Jeanne Shaheen in NH. In fact, the only bad news Democrats are fearing now is that Bob Kerrey might end up taking a pass in Nebraska -- but even there, the fat lady hasn't yet sung.

All of this is really icing on the cake for Democrats, who already felt great before Labor Day. Not only is the GOP is defending 22 seats, and the Dems only 12, but the NRSC has been doing poorly in fundraising and recruitment, failing to move to target states beyond... the one state of Louisiana. Democrats, on the other hand, are expanding the map left and right: While they are huge underdogs in TN, KY, NM, TX, and ID, odds are they will at least put one of those in play (just like VA in 2006 and KY in 2004 became competitive only in the last stretch). And the most problematic second-tier seat is turning to be Alaska, where incumbent Ted Stevens is facing significant bribery allegations.

The coming weeks are likely to bring more news that will determine how some of these races shape up. Bob Kerrey's decision is obviously what everyone is waiting for, but there are other important questions: Will Craig retire as he had promised? Will there be more open seats, with all eyes turned towards SD's Tim Johnson, AK's Stevens, and NM's Pete Domenici? Will Democrats find candidates to run against Dole in NC, Domenici in NM, Stevens in AK, McConnell in KY? All of these races could end up on the map, but Democrats have to succeed in their recruitment efforts first.

Check the September rankings here.

Outlook: Democratic pick-up 4-7 seats.

Prediction: Democrats pick-up a net 5 seats, for a 56-44 majority.

Likely Takeover (1 Republican seat, 0 Democratic seats)

1. Virginia (Open seat; Previous Ranking: 3)

Virginia inaugurates the "Likely Takeover" category. When John Warner announced he was retiring at the end of August, Virginia immediately became a top pick-up opportunity for Democrats. And events in September certainly didn't help dispel the notion that this is their race to lose: Very popular former Governor Mark Warner entered the race on their behalf, while the GOP is showing every indication that it is heading towards a divisive primary between moderate Rep. Tom Davis and conservative former Governor Jim Gilmore. To make matters much worse for Republicans, a few polls taken this month show Warner with massive leads of about 25% or more against both Davis and Gilmore.

Republicans argue that Warner has never been fully tested, and that they can lower his ratings by finally going on the offensive against him. While this may be true, Democrats can rest in peace (for now) for two simple reasons: (1) Warner has a lot of room to give before being truly threatened given the massive nature of his lead, and (2) Warner will have plenty of time to re-introduce himself to voters and strengthen their good impression of him.

That said, Tom Davis could make the race more competitive. He represents Northern Virginia, the region that has been trended dramatically blue over the past few years. Any Democrat who wants to win in VA has to carry Fairfax and the neighboring counties overwhelmingly, and Davis could cut in Warner's margins there. He first needs to win the GOP nomination then. If Republicans nominate their candidate through a primary, Davis has a good chance of winning. But if they opt to nominate him through a party convention, conservative activists could opt for the weaker Gilmore.

Lean Takeover (2 Republican Seats, 0 Democratic Seats)

2. New Hampshire (Incumbent: John Sununu; Previous ranking: 1)

A lot has changed in this race in the past month. At the beginning of September, the Democratic field was composed of three candidates who were hoping to take on Senator Sununu. A few weeks later, former Governor Jeanne Shaheen announced she would enter the race, setting up a rematch of the 2002 election. Two of the three Democrats already in the race (Marchand and Swett) withdrew, leaving Dartmouth Professor Jay Buckley as Shaheen's sole primary opposition. Many grassroots activists are questioning the party's rush to rally around Shaheen, a moderate politician who supported the war in 2003 and was not known for being particularly progressive during her terms as governor. But Shaheen is likely to coast to the nomination.

Polls throughout the summer showed Shaheen had Shaheen with gigantic leads averaging 20 points. That put Sununu in an even worse position than Santorum was in in 2006. How can an incumbent who is trailing by 20 points a year before the election possibly come back to win another term? But two polls taken shortly after Shaheen jumped in the race made Democrats a bit more confident. Shaheen only led by 5%. That is enough to make her the favorite (an incumbent in the low 40s rarely survives), but certainly not enough to count Sununu out.

Republicans argue that they beat Shaheen before, and they will use the same tactics against her in 2008. They see her record on taxes as particularly prone to attack. But Sununu barely edged Shaheen in 2002, at the height of Bush's popularity. The GOP took a drubbing in New Hampshire in 2006, and the Republican brand looks even worse today -- what fundamentals can Sununu rely on to come-back?

3. Colorado (Open; Previous ranking: 2)

This race has not made much news lately, probably because the basic story-line was settled months ago: Senator Allard retired, and both parties rallied around a candidate. Rep. Udall for Democrats, and former Rep. Shaffer for the GOP. Colorado has been voting for Democrats in open seat races in the past few years (the Salazar brothers in 2004, Governor Ritter in 2006), and have to be considered slightly favored here again. A recent poll commissioned by the Shaffer campaign gave Udall a 5-point lead. That certainly shows the state could still end up going for Republicans, but the poll was a partisan one, so it should be taken with a big grain of salt. This race will certainly shift around on the basis of future polls and campaign developments, but for now it is remarkably static.


Toss-up (4 R, 1 D)

4. Nebraska (Open; Last Ranking: 8)

Chuck Hagel announced his retirement last week, setting up what many people view as the marquee race of the 2008 cycle: former Republican Governor Mike Johanns versus former Democratic Senator Bob Kerrey. Both men were rumored to be very interested in the race, but for now only Johanns has announced his candidacy. Recent reports indicate that Kerrey might be leaning against a run after all!

This race's outlook will change dramatically in the coming days, as Kerrey is likely to announce his intentions very soon. If he does run, the race might edge into "lean takeover" territory -- given Kerrey's popularity in the state. If he ends up staying out of it, this race would drop down significantly, Johanns would be the favorite even if Omaha's Democratic Mayor Fahey agrees to jump in. Fahey would keep the race competitive, but he would find it difficult to overcome the state's overwhelming Republican lean, especially in a presidential year.

The second hope Democrats harbor is that Johanns will be stuck in a divisive primary. The state's Attorney General Bruning had been planning to run against Chuck Hagel in the primary, and he is showing no intention of backing down now that Johanns is in the race. Former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub entered the race for a few days, ran ads, and then decided to withdraw, setting up a two-way primary. This could prove an opening for the Democratic candidate (either Kerrey or Fahey) who would have time to introduce himself to voters and define the terms of the campaign.

5. Minnesota (Incumbent: Norm Coleman; Last Ranking: 6)

Coleman is showing signs of vulnerability, but the question of whether the Democratic candidates are strong enough to take him on remains. There is no question that the DFL could have found a stronger Democrat to take on Coleman, but a recent poll showed Coleman with a single-digits lead against both comedian Al Franken and businessman Mike Ciresi -- which seems to indicate both would offer a strong challenge to the incumbent. Also, Franken has been a tremendous fundraiser, while Ciresi is very wealthy and willing to use his own money to finance his campaign, so either of them would have the resources to make this truly competitive.

6. Louisiana (Incumbent: Mary Landrieu; Last Ranking: 7)

This race remained very static through September, for two very simple reasons. First, the Louisiana political world is focused on next month's gubernatorial race. Second, John Kennedy -- the likely Republican candidate against Landrieu -- is for now concentrated on his re-election as the state's Treasurer. He is running uncontested, but he will likely use the next two months to build up his network and connections, in preparation of 2008.

Landrieu has been aware of the target on her back since 2002, and has been preparing and fundraising accordingly. But the race nonetheless move up a spot: Republicans are now much more confident that Kennedy (who just switched his party affiliation in August) will jump in the Senate race, guaranteeing that Landrieu faces a strong challenge. And the fact that Landrieu is the only truly endangered Democrat means that Republicans will put all their offensive resources and potential for nasty campaigning in this state.

7. Maine (Incumbent: Susan Collins; Last Ranking: 5)

It is very curious that this election has been one of the most engaged of this cycle's, given that Collins portrays herself as a moderate non-partisan Republican who fits the needs of a progressive New England state. The liberal blogs clearly realize they have to make Collins into a more partisan figure to tie her to the GOP brand and make her into the 2008 cycle's Lincoln Chafee, a popular figure that loses re-election because of the R next to his name. Tim Allen is a top-tier candidate and is willing to do what he needs to do to take Collins down, but it will not be easy.

8. Oregon (Incumbent: Gordon Smith; Last Ranking: 4)

This race has been pretty quiet since Democrat Jeff Merkley, the Speaker of the Oregon House, announced his candidacy last month. Smith's biggest vulnerability is the Iraq War, and he has been inching away from full support to Bush's policies -- though Democrats are sure to argue that he has been putting on a show without actually voting for meaningful propositions. Republicans are also preparing to blur differences on the Iraq issue by pointing out that Merkley voted for a resolution in the Oregon House supporting the war. It worked for Bush against Kerry in 2004, but a lot has happened since then... Democrats would have better served if they had gotten one of their top-tier candidates in the race, but they are sure to make this race competitive.

Lean Retention (1 R, 1 D)

9. Alaska (Incumbent: Ted Stevens; Last Ranking: 14)

It seems that every day brings worse news for Ted Stevens. Since the beginning of September, a VECO executive testified in court that he had bribed Stevens's son, and that he had sent employees to renovate the Senator's house, the same that was raided earlier this summer by the FBI. Later in the month, it was revealed that the FBI had taped some of Stevens's phone conversations, and the state's Republican governor started talking about Stevens in a more critical tone.

The FBI investigation seems to be gathering stream, so the inevitable question is whether Stevens can even run again given the likelihood he will face new bribery allegations weekly throughout the campaign. If he runs, his hold on the state is strong enough that it would still take much more for Democrats to topple him though Stevens would clearly be very vulnerable. If the seat opens up, Republicans would probably start with an edge given the state's strong Republican lean. Democrats are looking at Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich to make this race as competitive as it should be.

10. South Dakota (Incumbent: Tim Johnson; Last Ranking: 9)

The fundamental equation of the race has not changed: If Johnson runs, Republicans are unlikely to mount a challenge against him. If he retires, Governor Rounds will probably jump in the race and start off as a strong favorite, even if Democratic Rep. Herseth tries to upgrade to the Senate. Johnson made his first public appearance at the end of August, and he has repeatedly stated since then he has every intention of running. He is raising money, and there seems to be no reason to doubt him at this point, which means Democrats are confident they will keep the seat. But Johnson clearly hasn't made up his mind 100% and has to be at least considering whether he is up for six more years in the Senate.


Likely retention (6 R, 0 D)

11. New Mexico (Incumbent: Pete Domenici; Last Ranking: 10)

This race will automatically move up if Democrats get a candidate in the race, but they have so far been unable to do so. This is really surprising given Domenici's ethical troubles following revelations that he was involved in the attorney firing scandal. Domenici has always been popular in his state, but a recent SUSA poll shows that his approval rating has collapsed to a dismal 41%. New Mexico voters are inching back towards Democrats after trying out Bush in 2004, and it is shocking the DSCC hasn't taken advantage of Domenici's troubles yet.

12. North Carolina (Incumbent: Elizabeth Dole; Last Ranking: 11)

Democrats have been convinced that Dole is vulnerable, but they still have to get a candidate in the race... Governor Easley crushed their hopes early in the cycle, and the DSCC has been looking for a replacement ever since. The latest name considered: State Rep. Gaier Martin, a veteran of Afghanistan. A recent Democratic poll shows Martin trailing Dole by 15%, with Dole under 50%, making the match-up potentially interesting but not too worrisome yet. And Democrats first have to actually convince Martin of running.

13. Texas (Incumbent: John Cornyn; Last Ranking: 12)

Two polls taken in September show Cornyn above 50% over his two Democratic challengers Mikal Carter Watts and Rick Noriega, with a lead averaging 17-18%. He is not showing obvious signs of vulnerabilities, but netroots are determined to make Noriega competitive and put resources in the race. First-term Cornyn hasn't developed a strong hold on his state, and his approval rating is weak enough to make it plausible that he could be threatened. But this is Texas, in a presidential year.

14. Idaho (Either open or with a yet-unappointed incumbent; Last Ranking: 15)

This race is almost unclassifiable at this point. All hell broke loose for Senator Craig in late August when it was revealed that he had plead guilty to lewd behavior. Craig then claimed he would resign at the end of September, but has since then backtracked on his promise. He is trying to withdraw his guilty plea, and the judge is likely to offer a ruling very soon (presumably next week). If the judge rules in Craig's favor, it appears that Craig would remain in the Senate until the end of his term. But even if the judge refuses, recent comments by Craig's lawyer indicate that Craig might still not resign!

What appears certain is that Craig will not try to run for re-election in 2008. But whether he resigns will determine whether the seat will be open, or whether Governor Otter will get to appoint a replacement that would then run in 2008 as an incumbent. Idaho is overwhelmingly Republican, and the GOP has a good bench, so they are likely to come away with a victory in either case. But if the seat becomes open, the GOP might divide itself in a bloody primary which could give a small opening to former Rep. LaRocco.

15. Kentucky (Incumbent: Mitch McConnell; Last Ranking: 13)

Democrats are on the verge of conquering the Governor's Mansion this November, and they are convinced they could extend their streak of Kentucky success to next year's Senate race. The Nation's cover was recently devoted to the promising grassroots movement in Kentucky. Mitch McConnell is no easy target; he is, after all, the Minority Leader. Democrats are hopeful that they can make this competitive with the candidacy of Attorney General Stumbo, who formed an explanatory committee last month. Rumors in September had it that Stumbo was about to drop out of the race, but nothing else has filtered since then.

16. Tennessee (Incumbent: Lamar Alexander; Last Ranking: 19)

Ray McWherter, the son of a former Democratic Governor, announced he would take on Lamar Alexander last week. Democrats are at least assured of being able to compete if Alexander has a George Allen-like meltdown. Don't hold your breath for the race to be any more competitive for now.


Almost Safe

All these states could become competitive under the right set of circumstances. But recruiting for now has not gotten the opposition party as far as they would like – and even if a major candidate were to emerge, the incumbent would likely need a “macaca”-like moment to end up losing the election. Don’t hold your breath, but something could happen.

17. New Jersey (Incumbent: Lautenberg; Last Ranking: 19)
A new poll last week showed how unpopular Lautenberg is. Asked whether the incumbent was too old to get another term, an overwhelming majority said that he was. But the race is only rated 17; all New Jersey Democrats have dismal approval ratings. Their saving grace is that NJ voters trust the GOP even less. The Republicans dump a ton of money every cycle in New Jersey with no benefits or progress whatsoever. They have no candidate against Lautenberg for now, and are unlikely to mount a strong challenge.

18. Oklahoma (Incumbent: Inhofe)
19. Montana (Incumbent: Baucus)
20. Iowa (Incumbent: Harkin)
21. Alabama (Senator Sessions)
22. Arkansas (Incumbent: Pryor)
Arkansas is deemed "almost" safe only because of the small possibility that Huckabee drops out of running for President and goes for Senate. This remains very unlikely because Huckabee's fortunes are improving in the GOP race (especially in Iowa) and that he is the most likely vice-presidential candidates for the Republicans.

Safe

Unless a Craig-like scandal erupts for incumbents in these states, don't expect these seats to switch. These seats are listed in some very loose order of potential and marginal vulnerability.
23. Georgia (Incumbent: Chambliss)
24. Illinois (Incumbent: Durbin)
25. Kansas (Incumbent: Roberts)
26. Delaware (Incumbent: Biden)
This race would be more competitive if it opened up, i.e. if Biden won the Democratic nomination for President and did not run for re-election as a result. Decide on the odds of that happening yourself.
27. Wyoming (Incumbent: Barrasso)
28. South Carolina (Incumbent: Graham)
Graham doesn't have much to fear from Democrats, but the conservative base would love a primary challenge against him).
29. West Virginia (Incumbent: Rockefeller)
30. Mississippi (Incumbent: Cochran)
31. Massachussets (Incumbent: Kerry)
32. Michigan (Incumbent: Levin)
33. Wyoming (Enzi)
34. Rhode Island (Incumbent: Reed)

First Senate rankings: How high can Democrats rise?

It’s the first of the month! That means it’s time for our (first) Senate rankings.

It has been obvious for months that the 2008 Senate cycle would favor Democrats. Even before taking into account the anti-GOP national mood that allowed Democrats to prevail in every close Senate race in 2006 but Tennessee, the raw numbers tell the story: the GOP is defending 22 seats, and the Dems only 12. Add to this the continually deteriorating atmosphere for Republicans, and you get poor fundraising for the NRSC, recruitment failures, and pessimist Republican operatives. The DSCC has been moving aggressively to press its advantage and to expand the playing field to new states. For now, NRSC Chairman Ensign is doing an even worst job than Sen. Dole did in 2005-2006. His fundraising is even worse, and he has failed to recruit top-tier Republican challengers – something Dole had at least done a good job at (Kean in NJ and Steele in MD, who could both have won in an other election cycle).

The rankings reflect this state of affair. The races are ranked from most vulnerable to take-over to safest to the incumbent party – and the top 6 seats are Republican. In fact, there are only 2 Democratic seats (Louisiana and South Dakota) in this list of 15 races! The WaPo quotes a GOP pollster as saying, "It's always darkest right before you get clobbered over the head with a pipe wrench. But then it actually does get darker.”

It is now too late for Republicans to reverse the situation – their endangered seats can no longer be made safe – but they can still hope to save face if they expand the playing field a bit: Democratic seats in Iowa and Montana have the potential of being competitive, but Republicans have barely made a move to challenge them yet. But this is one of the most important challenges facing the GOP in 2008: It is playing defense in so many states it can afford neither the time nor the money to go on the offensive against Democratic incumbents to at least test their vulnerability, and the NRSC is likely to settle on only challenging Landrieu in Louisiana.

Outlook: Democratic pick-up of 3-6 seats

Prediction: Democrats pick-up a net 5 seats, for a 56-44 majority.

Lean Takeover (3 Republican Seats, 0 Democratic Seats)

1. New Hampshire (Incumbent: John Sununu)

The Pennsylvania of the 2008 cycle. Sen. Sununu, preparing for his first re-election race, finds himself in a huge hole. If former Governor Shaheen enters the race in September (there hasn’t been much news from her since Robert Novak reported a few months back that her husband was saying there was a 70% she would run), she will start with a double-digit lead. A few polls already released have her 20% ahead. Casey was in a similar position against then Senator Santorum starting in the summer of 2005 – and he never looked back.

New Hampshire’s monumental swing to the Democrats in 2006 (they pulled two upsets to grab both the House seats and posted huge gains in the state house and in the state senate to take control of both) makes it that much harder for Sununu to hold on in a state that is clearly trending blue. And it also guarantees that the race stays competitive even if Shaheen takes a pass. The race will then undoubtedly be much closer, but the Democrats have other candidates that would make Sununu sweat it out. There are three candidates vying for the Democratic nod for now: Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand, Katrina Swett and Jay Buckey. Swett has been painted by the netroots as a Lieberman-type moderate (she did support Lieberman’s independant campaign in 06) who has to be stopped at all costs in the primary, so things could get ugly pretty fast.

The safest bet is that they will all withdraw if Shaheen gets in, but they seem to be increasingly annoyed at the way they are being treated, so some of them might end up staying in. They were in particular annoyed at a DSCC release in early August that argued for the competitiveness of the NH race by touting Shaheen’s candidacy, but there were no mention of the other candidates.

2. Colorado (Open)

Senator Allard had come from behind to win re-election in 2002. But he clearly did not relish the thought of another close election, and he chose to call it quits early in the cycle. The Democratic field has quickly unified behind Rep. Udall, who has been preparing to run for years now. He has been raising a lot of money, and hoping to capitalize on the state’s blue trend: Salazar’s victory in 2004, two House seats picked-up in 2004 and 2006 and the 2006 take-over of the governorship.

Udall seemed to have closed the deal a few months ago when the Republican front-runner suddenly withdrew, leaving the Republicans without a strong candidate. But they quickly found former Rep. Bob Shaffer, who lost the 2004 Senate Republican primary. Shaffer is strongly conservative, and the Democrats will paint him as too far to the right. But Republicans will strike right back, charging Udall is too liberal for the state (it is true that Udall represents one of the more Democratic districts in the state, and that his voting record has put him in the liberal wing of the House).

The race has not been particularly eventful for now – except for recent allegations that Shaffer has engaged in some unethical conduct, a story to be followed for sure.

3. Virginia (Open seat)

Sen. John Warner announced on Friday, August 31st that he will not run for a sixth term. Virginia thus became a huge opportunity for Democrats. But to capitalize on the state’s recent move towards the Democratic Party (the Democrats need popular former Governor Mark Warner to jump in the race for the Democrats. This would make it very difficult for Republicans to keep the seat.

Yes, Virginia remains a Republican state – and the GOP nominee will be strongly favored in the presidential election. But the Democrats are on a roll in the state with the back-to-back victories of Gov. Kaine in 2005 and Sen. Webb in 2006. And Mark Warner left office immensely popular, which probably is what got Kaine elected in the first place. To make matters worse, the Republicans are likely to break in a bitter fight, with conservatives already lining up behind former Governor (and brief presidential candidate) Gilmore to block Rep. Tom Davis, a moderate Republican who has been raising a lot of money (and who was all but endorsed today by John Warner).

This would not, however, be a blowout for Democrats. Virginia is still a Republican state – and the increased turnout of a presidential year would guarantee that the race stays close. Also, if the Republican candidate is Davis, he could neutralize some of the Democratic advantage in Fairfax, since he represents the Northern part of the state in Congress. And if Mark Warner takes a pass (and he certainly could, either because he wants to run for Governor again in 2009 or because he wants to stay in contention to be the vice-presidential pick next summer), Republicans would be once again favored to hold on to this seat.

Toss-up (3 R, 1 D)

4. Oregon (Incumbent: Gordon Smith)

Gordon Smith has known he has a target on his back for a while now, and he has taken steps accordingly. He has been the first Republican Senator to break with Bush on the War – but is that too little too late? Like all Republican defectors, Smith has never voted against the Administration on war-related issues, and Democrats are poised to use this to attack him. Oregon is a blue state – albeit by the smallest of margins – and the Democrat will benefit from presidential coattails. Until recently, Democrats did not have a candidate, as their top choices passed on the race one after the other. But they suddenly got two! The favorite is shaping to be Jeff Merkley, the Speaker of the Oregon House – widely credited for organizing the Democratic take-over of that chamber last year, and for going forward with a progressive agenda since then.

5. Maine (Incumbent: Susan Collins)

If New Hampshire is this cycle’s Pennsylvania, Maine could be its Rhode Island. A popular Republican incumbent in a very blue state facing a Democrat who does his best to tie him to the Bush Administration and the Iraq War. Olympia Snowe got a pass in 2006, but Sen. Susan Collins is getting no such thing. Rep. Tom Allen has already started running against her, and the race is heating up.

But Collins is no Chaffee. Chaffee committed mistake after mistake, falling behind early in the fall of 2006. He also faced a significant challenge on the Right, only surviving his primary 54% to 46%. Collins faces no such hurdle, and has already set her sight on Allen. Democratic operatives have realized how hard it will to drive Collins down, and it is no coincidence that the blogosphere is going after her the hardest: DailyKos and other progressive blogs have been pouncing on Collins for her demand that Allen stop sending people to film her, and state papers are jumping in the fray – mostly against Collins.

6. Minnesota (Incumbent: Norm Coleman)

Yes, Al Franken appears to be for real. He has raised millions of dollars, and is attacking Senator Coleman from all directions. But he will first have to survive the primary against very wealthy businessman Mike Ciresi, who is willing to spend his own money to win the race. The big question for now is whether Al Franken is electable – the answer could very well be that this is the state that made Jesse Ventura governor. Coleman is definitely vulnerable, and early polls show him winning against Franken and Ciresi by about 7%. The tragic end of the 2002 campaign – in which Coleman defeated Mondale after Senator Wellstone’s late October death – has made this seat a top Democratic target for five years now.

7. Louisiana (Incumbent: Mary Landrieu)

Mary Landrieu is on everyone’s list of the most endangered incumbents. Louisiana is trending red, and Rep. Jindal will likely cruise to taking over the governor mansion this fall. To make matters worse, Landrieu won re-election with a pale 52% by in 2002 and that was before Katrina changed the state’s demographics to the GOP’s advantage.

Republicans have not as of yet filed a strong candidate to take on Landrieu. But they are getting closer. They tried for months to get state Treasurer John Kennedy – a conservative Democrat – to switch parties and run against Landrieu. Rove personally headed this effort. And it paid off a week ago, when Kennedy became a Republican, fueling speculation that he would jump in the Senate race.

Until he does, Landrieu is getting a head start. She is raising a lot of money, fully aware she is vulnerable. And she is in a stronger position today than many expected she would be. With the 08 climate damaging Republican chances everywhere, Landrieu has at worse a 50-50 chance of returning to the Senate.

Lean Retention (1 R, 1 D)

8. Nebraska (Incumbent: Chuck Hagel)

Chuck Hagel has announced nothing for now – and he actually called a press conference back last spring to announce that he had nothing to announce. In front of dozens of reporters ready to cover a major announcement, Hagel declared: "I'm here today to announce that my family and I will make a decision on my political future later this year." NPR’s Ken Rudin wrote, “Nothing happened. Nothing other than Hagel saying that any announcement will come later in the year. It was the oddest sensation, as the realization settled in that a complete non-announcement announcement was at hand.”

But with the campaign season gearing up, Hagel will have to soon make up his mind. Will he run for president, will he run for re-election or will he retire from politics all together? If he ends up running, he will face a bruising Republican primary against Attorney General Joe Runing, angry over Hagel’s anti-war rhetoric. But the winner of the primary would be favored, as it seems unlikely major Democrats would jump in if Hagel is running.

But if Hagel retires, Democrats are sure to make this a very competitive open seat. Former Senator Bob Kerrey is eyeing a return to the Senate – and he would make the race extremely competitive. Many Democrats would prefer Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey to be their candidate. Republicans would probably try to get former Gov Johanns in the race. In a presidential year with increased turnout, Republicans would start slightly favored.

9. South Dakota (Incumbent: Tim Johnson)

I am the first to admit the Democrats are being a bit hypocritical in South Dakota. Democrats are busy fundraising for Johnson, while blasting Republicans whenever they mention that they are planning on competing in the state (witness Dashle’s reaction when Ensign said the NRSC was gearing for a run).

Johnson made his first public appearance since December on August 28th, in a highly choreographed event where he proclaimed “I am back!” In an interview on Nightline, he announced he plans to run for re-election, and he expects to win! If Johnson does not change his mind in the next few weeks, it does seem that he is appears healthy enough for voters to be willing to give him a second chance. And Republicans are unlikely to mount a strong challenge against Johnson, despite the fact that Johnson only survived by 540 votes in 2002.

But if Johnson announces retirement, the open seat would probably lean Republican, as Governor Rounds would probably jump in for the GOP. The Democrats would maybe field Rep. Herseth, the most popular Democrat in the state. But then who would they have left to run for the House? Do they really want to give up a House seat that looks as safe as a Democrat can ever be in SD to compete in a difficult Senate race?

Likely retention (6 R)

10. New Mexico (Incumbent: Pete Domenici)

This race entirely depends on what the incumbent decides to do. If Domenici retires, the state will become one of the most competitive. But we are betting the seat will not open up, and are ranking it accordingly. In fact, Bush raised money for Domenici at the end of August, which would seem to indicate Domenici has no plans of retiring.

Domenici has always been a popular incumbent, but he has taken a direct hit from the attorney firing scandal. He has been accused of interfering with the judicial system, trying to pressure a prosecutor and working to get him fired. That has hurt him badly – but it has not been fatal. The Democrats have no candidate for now, but a strong contender could put the seat in play.

11. North Carolina (Incumbent: Elizabeth Dole)

Democrats love attacking Elizabeth Dole for her terrible tenure as NRSC chairman in the 2006 cycle. They delight in her weak poll numbers and low approval ratings. They view her as very beatable. After all, Dole did not win by much against Bowles in 2002 – and that was in a very Republican year. But North Carolina is for now one of the Democrats’ biggest recruiting failures. Governor Easley and other major Democrats have announced they will not run, and Democrats are still looking. Polls show that Dole wins by healthy margins against very little-known Democrats, but she stays way under 50% - putting her in very vulnerable territory. We should better know what to expect from this race in the next few months.

12. Texas (Incumbent: John Cornyn)

Cornyn is an unpopular incumbent, with widely documented problems. But he comfortably won his seat in 2002 in what was supposed to be a competitive open seat, and Texas has hardly gotten bluer since then. Yet Democrat Mikal Carter Watts has announced his intention of spending millions of his own money to beat Cornyn. Democrats are also looking at the candidacy of state Rep. Rick Noriega. This at least guaranteeing that Democrats will have a fighting chance if Cornyn has an Allen-like meltdown.

13. Kentucky (Incumbent: Mitch McConnell)

Democrats are dreaming to oust Senate Majority Leader McConnell – payback for Dashle’s defeat in 2004. They almost have a candidate: Kentucky Attorney General Gregory Stumbo has formed an explanatory committee. But a lot of things will have to break their way for the seat to become competitive. Their first hope is that the corruption scandals that are driving Kentucky Republicans down will hurt McConnell as well. Democrats are poised to win the governor’s mansion by defeating the incumbent Fletcher this November – but McConnell is no Fletcher. The race will only heat up after the governor’s race is resolved.

14. Alaska (Incumbent: Ted Stevens)

Stevens has been serving in the Senate longer than anyone can remember. He hinted he would retire two years ago, when Democrats frustrated his efforts to implement drilling in Alaska. But he has given no further indication of going anywhere. And he was expected to sail through re-election (Democrats got burned the past two cycles when popular former Gov. Knowles failed to win the 2004 Senate race and the 2006 Governor’s race, so they were hardly expected to even try against the veteran Stevens) but that was before the FBI raided Stevens’ house looking. The entire Alaska delegation is now embroiled in a corruption scandal, and Democrats are looking to make that an issue.

Dems are trying to entice Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich in the race. If he declines, Stevens won’t have much difficulty coming back to the Senate. But if Begich announces his candidacy, this race will likely go up in the rankings.

15. Idaho (Incumbent: Will be appointed by Gov. Otter soon)

This race was nowhere on the radar screen until all hell broke loose for Sen. Craig on the 27th of August. His June guilty plea to lewd behavior charges (which were not that huge a surprise, since rumors that he is gay have been going around for months) almost eclipsed news of Gonzales’s resignation, and took the standards of Republican hypocrisy to a whole new level. For six days, Republicans piled on Craig, pressuring him to resign. He finally agreed on Saturday the 1st, which is going to allow Governor Otter - a Republican - to pick his replacement. Given Idaho's strong Republican roots, and given that Craig's replacement will have more than a year to build up his incumbency, Democrats would need a second miracle to make this seat really competitive.

Almost Safe

All these states could become competitive under the right set of circumstances. But recruiting for now has not gotten the opposition party as far as they would like – and even if a major candidate were to emerge, the incumbent would likely need a “macaca”-like moment to end up losing the election. Don’t hold your breath, but something could happen.

16. Oklahoma
17. Montana (Incumbent: Baucus)
18. Iowa (Incumbent: Harkin)
19. Tennessee (Incumbent: Alexander)
This seat would dramatically move up if Sen. Alexander was to retire. Would Ford then enter the race?
20. New Jersey (Incumbent: Lautenberg)
Lautenberg is very unpopular and has low approval ratings. But so do all New Jersey Democrats. Their saving grace is that the New Jersey GOP is even more unpopular.
21. Alabama (Senator Sessions)
22. Arkansas (Incumbent: Pryor)
Arkansas is deemed "almost" safe only because of the extremely small possibility that Huckabee drops out of running for President and goes for Senate.

Safe

Unless a Craig-like scandal erupts for incumbents in these states, don't expect these seats to switch. These seats are listed in some very loose order of potential and marginal vulnerability.
23. Georgia (Incumbent: Chambliss)
24. Illinois (Incumbent: Durbin)
25. Kansas (Incumbent: Roberts)
26. Delaware (Incumbent: Biden)
This race would be more competitive if it opened up, i.e. if Biden won the Democratic nomination for President and did not run for re-election as a result. Decide on the odds of that happening yourself.
27. Wyoming (Incumbent: Barrasso)
28. South Carolina (Incumbent: Graham)
Graham doesn't have much to fear from Democrats, but the conservative base would love a primary challenge against him).
29. West Virginia (Incumbent: Rockefeller)
30. Mississippi (Incumbent: Cochran)
31. Massachussets (Incumbent: Kerry)
31. Michigan (Incumbent: Levin)
32. Wyoming (Enzi)
33. Rhode Island (Incumbent: Reed)